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Key valuation metrics for the global metals and mining universe
In our weekly Global Metals & Mining Valuation report, we show the key pricing
metrics by company and commodity mix. We have separated the companies into the
following groups – diversified miners, copper, precious metals, iron ore & aluminium,
zinc/nickel and others (mineral sands, potash & coal). The data is drawn from our global
equity team's models, on a largely consistent basis, for the 56 companies under
coverage. We also compare UBS estimates to consensus.
Easy-to-use performance metrics and tables
Which commodities are paying the best dividend yield or have the best returns and
most robust balance sheets? The table on p.7 provides the answers. Which are the
best- and worst-performing equities? Go to the table on p.8. We have also included a
calendar of key events for the metals and mining sector over the next month (p.5).
Global Spot Scenario – Spot NPVs imply upgrades for all diversified miners
In terms of NPV, spot upgrades are inferred for all the diversified miners. The average
spot P/NPV multiple for the diversified miners is 0.53x (vs.0.98x under the UBS deck).
Individually, Rio Tinto is trading at 0.52x, South32 at 0.43x, BHP Billiton at 0.52x, Anglo
American at 0.55x, Glencore at 0.53x and 0.61x for Vale. The average spot 2017 P/E
multiple for the diversified miners is 9.2x (falling to 7.3x in 2018) and spot FCF yield for
2017 averages 13%, greater than 1% in comparison to UBS-e. The spot NPVs for the
base metal miners are mixed with downgrades especially for Norilsk (-28%) and some
upgrades include FMG (+24%) and KAZ Minerals (+10%). In the gold's, spot NPVs
imply downgrade for Fresnillo of 8% for Randgold to the extent of 9%. The average
spot P/NPV in the gold sector is 1.58x.
Overweight call on the sector – Still prefer base over bulks
Within our overweight position on the sector, we seek out companies that have the
ability to step up cash returns to shareholders, rather than a preference for base over
bulks. Our preferred global miners are South32, Rio Tinto and BHP for cash returns;
Evolution Mining & Randgold for gold exposure; Southern Copper, OZ Minerals & KAZ
Minerals for copper exposure, and Exxaro & Iluka for mineral sands exposure.
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