Deutsche Bank：China - Opportunities and Risks in 2018-2020 [推广有奖]

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tony_mxl 发表于 2018-1-18 10:15:24 |AI写论文

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算是昨天发的Deutsche Bank Macro Highlights的完整slides吧，英文41页：

Key messages from this presentation:

1. Tightening of fiscal policy is the most underestimated risk in 2018
- Fiscal spending is a key driving force behind the economic cycle. Its growth is set to slow in 2018.

2. Unprecedented wealth effect from housing market
- Value of residential housing went up by RMB 49trn (60% of GDP) in 2017. It offers big opportunities as well as risks, for China and the world.

3. We are more worried about inflation than consensus
- Consensus failed to forecast high inflation in the past.

4. Automation may be the next “disruptive innovation” in China
- Government support will likely pick up in the next five years.