Citigroup 长篇：Asia Economic Plausible Macro Surprises to Watch for in 2018 [推广有奖]

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zhou_yl 发表于 2018-2-6 21:08:38 |AI写论文

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Citigroup 1 月 31 日英文长篇，58页。
We summarize seven plausible Macro Surprises in Asia in 2018F
　　Surprise 1–Domestic-driven positive growth surprise in“CHINDIA”.ForChina，it could come in the form of more benign financial conditions，a resilient realestate sector，and surprising strength in the services sector.In India，the positivesurprise could come from a rural bias in pre-election spending and better-thanexpected private capex with easier access to funding and improved profitability.
　　Surprise 2–Tech cycle momentum could disappoint.One area of caution isthe semiconductor space due to a high base and slowing capex in Korea & Taiwan.
　　Surprise 3–Korea & Taiwan，accompanying Thailand，do not hike rates.Potential for“involuntary”tightening of monetary conditions for large“surplus”economies via FX appreciation，some growth headwinds（in Korea）and wellanchored inflation expectations may keep them on hold on rates for longer.