【免费】J.P. 摩根-中国快递物流：交付执行是关键-2018.2.26-57页

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We are expanding coverage on the Chinese express delivery sector with a constructive view as the industry continues to benefit from ecommerce market growth in China. We believe the industry has now entered into a new phase of development, characterized by a moderating growth rate, increasing consolidation, easing ASP pressure, and a shift in end-user expectations. The express stocks have on average underperformed their respective indices since Jan’17, with stocks having de-rated on concerns over pricing, moderating industry growth and service disruptions. That said, with ASP pressure set to ease and volume growth expectations now calibrated, we expect companies with superior execution to outperform the peer group, and hence are selective in our stock recommendations, preferring companies with consistently industry-leading execution and/or that are early-adopters of an ecosystem approach, which allowsfor integrated service offerings, and are best positioned to be endgame winners.
 Entering into a new phase of growth. After a period of rapid expansion that saw an industry parcel volume CAGR of 54% over CY11-16 (ecommerce GMV CAGR of 47% over the same period), industry growth is expected to moderate to a c20% CAGR for CY17-20E. We anticipate increasing differentiation between operators with an increasing focus on service quality and
diversification beyond express being key themes. This would result in rising heterogeneity within the space with companies that have stronger technology infrastructure and innovation likely to stand out, in our view.
 Volume and per parcel profitability the key share price drivers. Industrypricing has been declining in recent years driven by competition and rising operational efficiency, but we expect pressure to ease as smaller players exit. We expect per-parcel profitability to remain relatively stable for key players with rising cost efficiency being able to offset mild ASP pressure. We also
forecast market share concentration to rise with the aggregate share of the topfive players rising from c60% to c66% from CY17-20E. We expect ZTO and BEST to gain share on strong execution and clear strategies.
 Non-express diversification to emerge as new sources of value, as the majority of listed Chinese express players are looking to expand beyond express to cater to rising demand for integrated solutions. As new investments carry execution risk, we prefer early-adopters of the ecosystem approach that have found success in non-express industry segments as proof of execution. Stock views. We are OW on both ZTO and BEST. ZTO's execution has been the strongest and most consistent amongst mass-market express players and we expect outperformance to continue going forward. BEST on the other hand, was an early adopter of the ecosystem approach and is well positioned as an integrated solutions provider to capture new growth opportunities arising from shifting demand trends.

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