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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月印度银行业研究报告
【作者】：JM FINANCIAL
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：40
【目录或简介】：
Indian Banks: Display of Resilience
Indian Banks (SCBs) have demonstrated their resilience during the global
financial crisis as their profitability and asset quality remained relatively
unaffected. SCBs achieved a remarkable profit growth of 23% for the FY09,
while adjusted LLP and Net NPLs increased by only 14 bps and 5 bps
respectively. However, restructured assets increased sharply post RBI
guidelines. Going forward, while credit growth is expected to pick up as
economic activities fully revive, key parameters for Indian banks i.e
margins, fee income, cost to assets ratio too would show an improvement.
Hence we expect ROA of Indian Banks to display stability inspite of lower
treasury profits and marginal rise in credit cost. Increase in leverage is
expected to result in higher ROEs from levels of 15.4% in FY09.
􀂃 Phenomenal 21% CAGR Profits growth (FY03-09), profitability unaffected
despite the crisis: Consolidated Profits of Indian Banks witnessed a remarkable
21% CAGR in earnings during FY03-09. Despite the financial crisis profit growth
was at 23% to Rs 525 bn in FY09 and is still going strong in FY10. ROA of the
system has been consistently improving since FY05 and is currently at 110 bps in
FY09. However, ROEs remained stable between 15-16% due to consistent decline
in leverage (from 17x in FY04 to 14x in FY09). Going forward, while we expect
ROA to remain stable, increase in leverage will lead to higher ROEs.
􀂃 SOE Banks gained market share during the crisis: There was a sharp
reversal in the long term trend of increasing market share for Private Banks, as
deposit growth rate for private banks fell below 10% for the first time in last ten
years (primarily due to decline in deposits for ICICI bank). On incremental basis,
SOE Banks witnessed market share of 89%, 85% and 88% in total deposits, CASA
deposits and loans in FY09. Going forward, we expect Private Banks to accelerate
assets growth and get back to gaining market share trend.
􀂃 Asset Quality largely under control, but Foreign Banks severely impacted:
Despite severe credit crunch, economic slowdown and significant decline in global
trade, there was a marginal rise in delinquencies from 175 bps in FY08 to 214 bps
in FY09 for the Indian Banking System. However, Foreign Banks were severely
impacted as their slippages jumped to 5.27% for FY09. Interestingly, while
system witnessed 14 bps increase in adjusted LLP to 94 bps, SOE banks witnessed
an improvement on this front. Net NPLs were up only 5 bps to 1.05% in FY09 for
the system. In our opinion, adjusted LLP (which touched a low of 15 bps in FY06)
would peak out in FY10 and would improve from FY11 onwards.
􀂃 Strong Performance to continue, we remain positive: Going forward, while
credit growth is expected to pick up as economic activities fully revive, key
parameters for Indian banks i.e margins, fee income, cost to assets too would
show an improvement. Hence we expect ROA of Indian Banks to display stability
inspite of lower treasury profits and marginal rise in credit cost. Earnings of SCBs
are likely to witness 16-18% CAGR growth during FY09-12E and increase in
leverage is expected to result in higher ROEs from levels of 15.4% in FY09
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