扩大内需是个伪命题

唉...............

同意29楼所说，扩内需从亚洲金融危机过后就一直在提，但十年过去了却没有多大效果。在当前中国当前的工业化进程阶段，如果没有重大的体制改革出台，扩内需、依靠消费拉动经济还是一个比较长远的梦想。

要扩大内需只能从普通老百姓也就是穷人身上下手，除了医疗养老教育这些治标工程外，最根本的是增加收入，而收入又分配决定，分配又由所有制决定，所有制是什么又很清楚；所以扩大内需，根本不可能，就是一句扯淡的广告语吧。。。

扩大内需是官方的税收和财政部门的口号。民间的老百姓只关心增加收入。扩大内需就是变相地鼓励政府多花钱。

确实是体制问题

扩大内需，先要明确内需是否存在扩大的空间，以及扩大的是哪部份的需，就目前的体制而言，扩大的只是政府消费。

我敢肯定地说，你的见解完全正确。希望继续坚持这种独立思考的的好习惯！
中国本无扩大需求之说，西方也只是短暂出现过，也就是上世纪30年代的事。目前的主流理论是讨论如何更有效地使用资源，更多地创造增价值，实际是回到了经济学的本质问题。当然，分配问题也很关键。
现在大多数官员和学者，其实是学了一半西方经济学的半成品，以扩大需求理论为时尚，一时间换地名、公章致富经济学、洪水、地震致富经济学流行起来，房地产拉动经济、低价出口拉动、基础设施拉动经济等更是成为当前应对金融危机的政策主体，实是拾人余唾！
中国的制造业附加值太低，才是内需不足的根源。这就是生产决定消费的基本原理的体现。
太低的附加值，再加上中国的分配过于两极分化，更加重了内需不足现象。社会保障的不足，也属于分配范畴。这就是生产关系的反作用。
有这二条，也就说明内需求不足是伪问题。真正的问题便是生产效率低下，分配不公。

这个问题，郎咸平似乎说到过

有道理，受益

The world has changed; but China has not. China has responded to the world financial crisis with what seems to be great success. But this is an illusion. China's solution – a surge in spending on investment – will create greater excess capacity. China's high-savings, high-investment economy is costly for its people and destabilising for the world. The time for a radical reform is long past.

In a disturbing new report, the European Chamber of Commerce in China lays out the challenge in six sectors: aluminium, where the capacity utilisation rate is forecast to be 67 per cent in 2009; windpower, on 70 per cent; steel, on 72 per cent; cement, on 78 per cent; chemicals, on 80 per cent; and refining, on 85 per cent. Yet vast additional capacity is on the way.

The scale of the excess capacity is breathtaking. At the end of 2008, China's steel capacity was 660m tons against demand of 470m tons. This difference is much the same as the European Union's total output. Yet, notes the report, “there are currently 58m tonnes of new capacity under construction in China”. To the extent that gross domestic product is driven by such absurd spending is a measure of waste, not of economic welfare.

Foreign producers fear the impact of China's growing surplus capacity on their markets. But this is not just a problem for specific industries. It is a broader problem. China has become hooked on an unbalanced pattern of economic development, in which investment cures this year's excess capacity by increasing next year's.
In China's current development model, household income is taxed, to support corporate profits. Corporations now generate more than half of China's huge savings. Since consumption tends to grow more slowly than GDP, excess capacity can only be used up via yet more investment or exports. This year, economic crisis has made the latter impossible. But China desperately needs to expand its exports once again. The result may well be a crisis in the trading system.

China's trading partners have to engage with the rising giant. They must explain that they cannot – and will not – absorb the surplus capacity its heavily distorted model of development is creating. But they can point out that this pattern also damages the standards of living of ordinary Chinese. China has to shift income from its corporations to its households and spending from investment to consumption. What is needed for that is a massive structural reform. This must start now. Indeed, it may already be too late.