Chapter 2
STATISTICAL THEORY AND ECONOMETRICS
ARNOLD ZELLNER*
University of Chicago
Contents
1. Introduction and overview 68
2. Elements of probability theory 69
2.1. Probability models for observations 70
2.2. Definitions of probability 71
2.3. Axiom systems for probability theory 74
2.4. Random variables and probability models 82
2.5. Elements of asymptotic theory 110
3. Estimation theory 117
3. I. Point estimation 117
3.2. Criteria for point estimation 118
4. Interval estimation: Confidence bounds, intervals, and regions 152
4. I. Confidence bounds 152
4.2. Confidence intervals 154
4.3. Confidence regions 156
5. Prediction 158
5.1. Sampling theory prediction techniques 159
5.2. Bayesian prediction techniques 162
6. Statistical analysis of hypotheses 164
6.1. Types of hypotheses 164
6.2. Sampling theory testing procedures 165
6.3. Bayesian analysis of hypotheses 169
7. Summary and concluding remarks 172
References 174
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