China: Rebalancing in the post-crisis era—2010-2011growth and inflation outlook

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Gao Hua Economics Research


We expect continued solid growth in 2010 and 2011, supported by strong
fundamentals and improved macro policy adjustment.
 We have lowered our 2009 GDP growth forecast to 8.7% from 9.4% and our
2010 GDP forecast to 11.4% from 11.9%. Although our forecasts are slightly
lower, we believe these growth levels will help prolong the business cycle.
 While external demand gradually strengthens, we continue to expect
domestic demand to be the main growth driver in the next two years.
 We expect policymakers to continue to lean towards using discretionary
measures for countercyclical adjustment in 2010. We believe they will likely
weave in a multi-pronged policy agenda for medium term rebalancing.
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