上财高研院中国宏观经济形势分析与预测2017-2018年度报告概要

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1 论文标题：Conquering China’s Unbalanced and Inadequate Development: Macroeconomic Outlook, Policy Simulations, and Reform Implementation—A Summary of Annual SUFE Macroeconomic Report (2017–2018)
2 作者信息

Kevin X. D. Huang

Vanderbilt University; Institute for Advanced Research, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

Lei Ning

Institute for Advanced Research, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

Guoqiang Tian

School of Economics and Institute for Advanced Research, Shanghai University of

Finance and Economics; Department of Economics, Texas A&M University

3 出处

Cite this article:

Kevin X. D. Huang,Lei Ning,Guoqiang Tian. Conquering China’s Unbalanced and Inadequate Development: Macroeconomic Outlook, Policy Simulations, and Reform Implementation—A Summary of Annual SUFE Macroeconomic Report (2017–2018)[J]. Front. Econ. China, 2018, 13(2): 147-170.

链接
http://journal.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/10.3868/s060-007-018-0011-0
http://journal.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/Y2018/V13/I2/147

4 摘要

解决中国不平衡不充分发展问题：宏观经济展望、政策模拟及改革实施——

上财高研院中国宏观经济形势分析与预测2017-2018年度报告概要

黄晓东

范德比尔特大学

上海财经大学高等研究院

宁磊

上海财经大学高等研究院

田国强

上海财经大学经济学院&高等研究院

美国得州A&M大学经济系

摘要：走过2017年，中国宏观经济的发展仍然不平衡不充分。尽管一些总量指标呈现全年向好态势，消费和固定资产投资领域的累积增长率还是延续了下行轨迹。收入分配的恶化和资源在第二、三产业之间及第三产业内部错配程度的加剧给中国经济带来了严峻挑战，而旺盛滋生的影子银行系统、快速增长的信贷和不断累积的债务所衍生出的系统性风险更像是悬在中国经济头上的达摩克利斯之剑。本年度报告概要重点展现了在中国持续扭曲的经济结构下不平衡不充分发展的现状和后果，以及进一步深化机构改革和治理在解决这些问题上所能发挥的作用。我们基于IAR-CMM模型的分析提供了一个统一的框架, 以内在逻辑一致的方式探讨解决中国短、中、长期的问题。在基准情景下，我们预计2018年全年实际GDP增速约为6.7%，而经校正后的GDP增速约为6.41%。我们做了多种情景分析和政策模拟，以反映中国经济在短、中、长期中所面临的各种不确定性和挑战。通过这些分析，我们的结论是，在中国从高速但不平衡增长向平衡充分的高质量发展转型过程中，以法治为基础和市场化为导向的结构性改革应该继续处于中心地位。

Conquering China’s Unbalanced and Inadequate Development: Macroeconomic Outlook, Policy Simulations, and Reform Implementation—A Summary of Annual SUFE Macroeconomic Report (2017–2018)

KevinX. D. Huang

Vanderbilt University; Institute for Advanced Research, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

Lei Ning

Institute for Advanced Research, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

Guoqiang Tian

School of Economics and Institute for Advanced Research, Shanghai University of

Finance and Economics; Department of Economics, Texas A&M University

  

Abstract: Leaving year 2017 China’s macroeconomy is continuously characterized by unbalanced and inadequate development. Whereas some aggregate indicators have shown improvement over the year, the cumulative growth rates in consumption and fixed asset investment have continued their downward trajectories. Worsening income inequality and resource misallocations, both between secondary and tertiary industries, and within the latter, pose serious challenges, let alone the systemic risk associated with the flourishing shadow banking system, rapid credit growth and debt overhang that weigh on the Chinese economy like the Sword of Damocles. This summary report highlights both the status quo and the consequences of the unbalanced and inadequate development embodied in China’s persistently distorted economic structure, and the role of deepening reforms of the institutions and governance in resolving the problems. Our analyses based on IAR-CMM model provide a unified framework for addressing China’s short-, medium-, and long-term issues in an internally coherent manner. Looking into year 2018, our benchmark projection of real GDP growth rate is 6.7% (6.41% using more reliable rather than the official data). Alternative scenario analyses and policy simulations are conducted to reflect various aspects of the economic challenges in the short to long runs. Through the lens of these analyses we conclude that rule-of-law based and market-oriented structural reforms should continue to hold a center stage in China’s transition from a phase of high-speed but unbalanced growth, to a stage of balanced and adequate high-quality development.

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关键词：宏观经济形势 中国宏观经济 宏观经济 形势分析 年度报告 宏观经济展望 政策模拟 改革实施 中国经济 不平衡不充分