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Growth momentum to continue into 1H10, but weaken in 2H10
- Strong performance in 1H10 not expected to continue into 2H10
Despite a positive steel demand outlook for 2010, a cost-push increase in steel prices
is expected to emerge as a key issue as supply will likely exceed demand.
International steel prices are forecast to remain strong until 2Q10 thanks to higher
iron ore and coking coal contract prices. However, the steel market is expected to
turn down in 2H10 as capacity expansions at global steel firms begin to kick in and as
raw material prices stabilize. - Steel shares expected to outperform KOSPI until 2Q10
Steel shares tend to outperform as steel prices increase. As we expect steel prices to
remain strong until 2Q10, we are maintaining our Overweight call on steel stocks until
2Q10. - Hold POSCO until 2Q, Buy Hyundai Steel and Hyundai Hysco if prices correct
Our top pick is POSCO (005490 KS) which will likely outperform the KOSPI
irrespective of steel market conditions. As the valuation multiples of second-tier
steelmakers are no longer attractive, POSCO is expected to outperform its Korean
peers even in a booming steel market. Meanwhile, Hyundai Steel (004020 KS) and
Hyundai Hysco (010520 KS) shares should be attractive in the event of a price
correction in 2Q~3Q, as these companies have increased their long-term growth
potential through restructuring.
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