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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月日本电线与电缆行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：31
【目录或简介】：
Downgrading to Negative:
We downgrade our sector stance to Negative. With regard to short-term sector
earnings, we think 1H results demonstrate that a measurable recovery is
taking place, thanks particularly to the automotive and electronics-related
business segments. However, we see increased risk of market deterioration in
the data and telecom fields. As earnings momentum wanes in the automotive
and electronics segments, we think this will allow new risk factors to impact
the sector negatively.
• Downturn in telecom-related business looms:
We expect earnings in the data and telecom-related business segment, which
tends to follow the global economic trend, to begin declining in the near
future. The world’s major telecom carriers are reducing capital investment
budgets, with carriers in Europe announcing particularly sharp cuts recently.
Along with external factors such as capital investment cuts by global carriers,
the optical component businesses of wire and cable companies are also
burdened by structural issues such as an increasingly competitive market
environment. Suppliers in Asian emerging markets are establishing a
particularly strong presence in the field of trunk-line devices, increasing
market competition. For these reasons, we are not optimistic about the nearterm
profit growth prospects of cable makers’ optical device businesses.
• Where are companies focusing?:
Wire and cable makers rushed to diversify after the IT bubble burst. But we
think this aggressive business portfolio expansion has obscured each
company’s core competency. With the exception of Sumitomo Electric, which
has clearly established automotive wire harnesses as its “core” business line,
the companies in this sector are each involved in everything from data/telecom
to electronics and basic materials, but no company has positioned any
particular field as its absolute driver of company-wide earnings. In fact, the
traditional copper and brass products business has suffered from steady market
erosion, and industry reorganization is inevitable. We think the industry as a
whole must reorganize and consolidate its unprofitable business fields, with
each individual company identifying its own core business lines and focusing
its resources there.
• Modest adjustment in price targets: We are bearish on the sector but
maintain our earnings forecast for individual companies. We lower our price
target for Hitachi Cable to ¥240 (FY09 JPM E PBR 0.7x) from ¥280 in view
of the stock's recent decline. We think all sector companies are on course for
some degree of earnings recovery but believe real share-price upside will
require a clear growth story for FY2010 and beyond.
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