发帖
雷达卡
■ Headline PMI for November was flat at 55.2. The new orders index
moderated by 0.1 pp to 58.4, mainly dragged by a sharp 16.8 pp fall in oil
refining, due to price adjustments in October.
■ New orders for metals went up, but orders for machinery moderated
across the board, highlighting that government-sponsored infrastructure
investment has peaked at high levels.
■ New export orders are down 0.9 pp to 53.6. The external trading sector
has softened, despite media reports on rising order books for exporters. We
think export orders are recovering, but are volatile per sector.
■ Major input stocks rose 2.4 pp while finished goods stocks rose 2.0 pp.
In our view, the flattish headline PMI seemed to be lifted by higher inventory
levels, while orders moderated. Input prices surged by 6.5 pp, although the
cost hikes are focused in oil refining, chemicals and chemical fibre.
■ This set of data is relatively weak, in our view, driven by the weaker-than-
expected export new orders and inventory cycles. The latest PMI bodes well
with Beijing’s apparent decision to keep the macro policy stance unchanged,
and to leave the review on whether to exit from the loose policy to March
2010.
京公网安备 11010802022788号
