2009年11月中国钢铁行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月中国钢铁行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：51
        【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
From negative to positive ................................................................. 3
What is driving steel prices? .....................................................................................................3
Why are we bullish now?..........................................................................................................4
Supply and demand outlook ............................................................ 6
Overcapacity to persist, but supply/demand to improve ..........................................................6
FAI growth to slow, but GDP/export growth to rebound in FY10 .............................................7
FY10 steel consumption growth set to revert to FY06-07 levels ..............................................9
FY10: normalized margins/earnings for Chinese steel mills ....................................................10
Consolidation: the key theme......................................................... 11
Consolidation: the next key driver...........................................................................................11
The upstream ambition................................................................... 15
Shopping spree to continue in FY10 .......................................................................................15
Higher earnings/target prices ........................................................ 18
Significant earnings upgrades on higher steel prices..............................................................18
Earnings sensitivities to steel ASPs/input costs......................................................................18
Angang Steel.................................................................................... 22
Upgrade to Buy................................................................................ 24
Higher target price on increased FY10-11E earnings ..............................................................24
Sensitivities............................................................................................................................25
Key risks.................................................................................................................................26
Maanshan Iron and Steel ................................................................ 28
Upgrade to Buy................................................................................ 30
Higher target price on higher FY10-11E earnings....................................................................30
Sensitivities............................................................................................................................31
Key risks.................................................................................................................................32
Steel data ......................................................................................... 33
Production growth and breakdown.........................................................................................34
Breakdown of net imports by product type ............................................................................37
International pricing vs US$ index...........................................................................................38
PRC domestic spot pricing – HRC ..........................................................................................39
PRC domestic spot pricing – Rebar ........................................................................................40
Bulk materials trade ........................................................................ 41
Iron ore trading and production...............................................................................................43
Thermal coal trade ..................................................................................................................45
Metallurgical coal trade...........................................................................................................46

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 钢铁行业 中国钢铁 positive 研究报告 driving 德意志 钢铁行业

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