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英文文献：ACRE: A Revenue-Based Alternative to Price-Based Commodity Payment Programs-ACRE:基于收入的替代基于价格的商品支付程序
英文文献作者：Cooper, Joseph C.
英文文献摘要：
This paper develops a stochastic model for estimating the probability density function of the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE), a revenue-based commodity support payment that is offered under the 2008 Farm Act as an alternative to the traditional suite of price-based commodity payments, that is, marketing loan benefits and counter-cyclical payments. We minimize the potential for miss-specification bias in the model by using nonparametric and semi-nonparametric approaches as specification checks in the model. Our simulation results show that adding ACRE revenue payments to gross revenue reduced the downside risk in revenue for corn, wheat, and soybean farmers in 2009 in the four locations examined, with reductions ranging from 4% to 25%. Integrating Federal crop insurance with ACRE lowered insurance premiums from 10% to 40%, depending on the crop and location. A utility maximization approach is used to assess potential moral hazard effects of ACRE, and suggest little potential impact on acreage in the Heartland.
本文开发的随机模型估计的概率密度函数的平均作物收入选举(亩),收入为目标的商品支持支付,根据2008年农场作为替代传统的定价商品付款,也就是说,市场营销和反周期支付贷款的好处。通过使用非参数和半非参数方法作为模型的规范检查，我们将模型中可能出现的规范偏差最小化。我们的模拟结果显示，将英亩收入支出增加到总收入中，降低了这四个地区玉米、小麦和大豆农民2009年的收入下降风险，降幅从4%到25%不等。将联邦农作物保险与英亩公司合并后，根据作物和地点的不同，保险费从10%降低到40%。效用最大化方法被用来评估英亩的潜在道德风险影响，并表明对中心地带的面积几乎没有潜在影响。
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