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【出版时间及名称】：2010年中国地产行业前景展望
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：51
【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 3
Outlook – GFA sales to decline next year due to less speculation............................................3
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................3
Risks ........................................................................................................................................3
Investment strategies ....................................................................... 4
Key points ................................................................................................................................4
Market in 2010 to be driven by alpha returns............................................................................4
Selection should focus on capacity, leverage, land bank/auction..............................................4
Top picks summary...................................................................................................................6
Valuation and risks ....................................................................................................................7
Short-term asset bubble plays ..................................................................................................9
Two-pronged policies ..................................................................... 10
Key points: ..............................................................................................................................10
Support first-time buyers to boost domestic consumption ....................................................10
Discourage speculative demand to restrain home prices .......................................................11
Additional focuses on new supplies and idle land ..................................................................11
Market outlook for 2010.................................................................. 13
Key points ...............................................................................................................................13
Strong 2009 sales volume difficult to replicate in 2010 ..........................................................13
GFA completion to improve in 2010 .......................................................................................14
Short-term supply shortage but will improve next year ..........................................................15
ASPs to increase 5-10% in 2010.............................................................................................15
Land auctions present risks............................................................ 17
Key points ...............................................................................................................................17
Recent land auction price premiums approaching 2007 high .................................................17
Higher AV/ASP ratio may lead to future margin compression.................................................17
Shanghai Expo Play......................................................................... 19
Key points: ..............................................................................................................................19
Supply shortage driven by declining GFA completion in 2008 and 2009 ................................19
No improvement in new supply..............................................................................................19
Beneficiary of supply shortage in Shanghai ............................................................................20
Investment Properties..................................................................... 21
Key points ...............................................................................................................................21
Shanghai Expo to lift hotel demand in Shanghai .....................................................................21
Beijing office market has started to improve ..........................................................................22
China Vanke ..................................................................................... 24
China Resources Land..................................................................... 28
Agile Property .................................................................................. 32
Glorious Property ............................................................................ 36
Franshion Properties ....................................................................... 40
Shanghai Forte Land ....................................................................... 44
Appendix A....................................................................................... 48
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