求助：协整

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第一次做协整，结果不知道怎么看，怎么解释。希望各位高手能够给予指点！多谢！


Date: 12/28/09   Time: 10:38   
Sample (adjusted): 1993 2008   
Included observations: 16 after adjustments   
Trend assumption: No deterministic trend   
Series: LC LF LG     
Lags interval (in first differences): 2 to 2   
   
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)   
   
Hypothesized  Trace 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
   
None *  0.826735  43.59821  24.27596  0.0001
At most 1 *  0.582044  15.55125  12.32090  0.0139
At most 2  0.094776  1.593173  4.129906  0.2428
   
Trace test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level   
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level   
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values   
   
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)   
   
Hypothesized  Max-Eigen 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
   
None *  0.826735  28.04697  17.79730  0.0010
At most 1 *  0.582044  13.95807  11.22480  0.0162
At most 2  0.094776  1.593173  4.129906  0.2428
   
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level   
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level   
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values   
   
Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):     
   
LC LF LG  
5.509416  1.086650 -5.098098  
-11.75510  23.90180 -12.03741  
3.268127  5.577726 -7.977486  
   
   
Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):     
   
D(LC)  0.003284  0.052915  0.004045
D(LF)  0.016819  0.010896  0.000363
D(LG) -0.004364  0.027983 -0.005339
   
   
1 Cointegrating Equation(s):   Log likelihood  112.2147
   
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)   
LC LF LG  
1.000000  0.197235 -0.925343  
  (0.36830)  (0.33234)  
   
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)   
D(LC)  0.018093   
  (0.11230)   
D(LF)  0.092665   
  (0.02587)   
D(LG) -0.024045   
  (0.06461)   
   
   
2 Cointegrating Equation(s):   Log likelihood  119.1938
   
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)   
LC LF LG  
1.000000  0.000000 -0.752972  
   (0.00990)  
0.000000  1.000000 -0.873937  
   (0.00642)  
   
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)   
D(LC) -0.603928  1.268333  
  (0.17520)  (0.32290)  
D(LF) -0.035423  0.278720  
  (0.04527)  (0.08344)  
D(LG) -0.352994  0.664113  
  (0.11035)  (0.20338)

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关键词：coefficients unrestricted observations Integrating coefficient 求助

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