The Effects of Changing Commodity Prices On the CRP-商品价格变化对CRP的影响

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英文文献：The Effects of Changing Commodity Prices On the CRP-商品价格变化对CRP的影响
英文文献作者：Hellerstein, Daniel,Malcolm, Scott A.
英文文献摘要：
How might increases in commodity prices, along with the acreage reduction mandated in the 2008 Farm Act, impact the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP)? Modeling Strategy The Likely To Bid (LTB) model “restarts” the CRP from scratch. Uses National Resources Inventory data to find parcels “likely” to offer acreage to the CRP Policy scenarios We consider several scenarios, both with and without increases in CRP rental rates. Continuation of current prices, which are well above prices prevalent when most CRP contracts were enrolled Predicted prices due to an increase in biofuels production to 15 billion gallons Expectation that summer 2008 prices will be the norm Findings Continuation of current, relatively high commodity prices would have noticeable impacts on the costs and environmental benefits of the CRP Additional impacts due to increasing ethanol production (from 6.5 to 15 billion gallons) would be relatively minor Additional impacts of a recurrence of summer 2008 prices would be substantial

大宗商品价格的上涨，以及2008年农业法案规定的耕地面积减少，将如何影响保护储备计划(CRP)?建模策略可能投标(LTB)模型从头“重新启动”CRP。利用国家资源库存数据寻找“可能”为CRP政策方案提供面积的地块，我们考虑了几种方案，包括CRP租金上涨和不上涨的情况。继续当前的价格，远高于大多数CRP合同签订时的普遍价格预计由于生物燃料产量增加到150亿加仑预计2008年夏季的价格将是正常的结果继续当前，相对较高的商品价格会对CRP的成本和环境效益产生明显的影响，乙醇产量的增加(从65亿加仑增加到150亿加仑)带来的额外影响将是相对较小的，2008年夏季价格复发带来的额外影响将是巨大的

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