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英文文献：Distribution of Benefits and Adoption of Bt Cotton in Pakistan: Ex-ante Analysis-巴基斯坦Bt棉的效益分配与采用:事前分析
英文文献作者：Nazli, Hina,Sarker, Rakhal,Meilke, Karl D.,Orden, David
英文文献摘要：
This poster presents the potential impact of Bt cotton adoption in Pakistan. The size and distribution of economic benefits from the commercial adoption of Bt cotton in Pakistan are examined under four hypothetical scenarios. The adjusted economic surplus model is used to measure total benefits and their distribution between producers, consumers and technology innovators. To account for uncertainty in key parameters, the stochastic simulation techniques is applied. The results show that the total net benefits of adopting Bt cotton in Pakistan are large. As a result of increase in production, farmers get considerable benefits despite a decline in price. The share of benefits to innovators is small. The results indicate that the total cost of adopting latest Bt technology to the government of Pakistan is less than the benefits that farmers and consumers of all cotton-textile chain can receive. This is true even if the decline in pesticide expenditure and increase in yield are not very large.
这张海报展示了在巴基斯坦采用Bt棉花的潜在影响。在四种假设情景下研究了巴基斯坦商业采用Bt棉花带来的经济利益的规模和分配。调整后的经济盈余模型用于衡量总收益及其在生产者、消费者和技术创新者之间的分配。为了考虑关键参数的不确定性，采用了随机模拟技术。结果表明，巴基斯坦采用Bt棉花的总净效益较大。由于产量的增加，尽管价格下降了，农民还是获得了相当大的利益。创新者所获得的利益份额很小。结果表明，巴基斯坦政府采用最新Bt技术的总成本小于所有棉纺产业链的农民和消费者所能获得的收益。这是事实，即使农药支出的减少和产量的增加不是很大。
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