Incidence of Agro-Climate Variability over Grass-Fed Cattle Markets-草饲牛市场上农...

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英文文献：Incidence of Agro-Climate Variability over Grass-Fed Cattle Markets-草饲牛市场上农业气候变化的发生率
英文文献作者：Lanfranco, Bruno A.,Castano, Jose Pedro
英文文献摘要：
The objective of this study was the quantification of the effects of intra-annual and seasonal agro-climate variability over market conditions, for “open sky” livestock production systems such as those prevailing in Uruguay. Permanent conditions (soil type, including productivity and water storage capacity), pastures seasonal average growth cycles) will be discriminated from not permanent conditions (intra-annual and seasonal climate variability), identifying regional patterns using iso-price maps. The magnitude of the effects of the selected variables is reflected by their marginal contribution to the price received by cattle lots in the market at a certain point in time. Almost eight years of available per-lot trading information from live cattle video auctions is utilized to construct confidence intervals over the average price patterns. Information about abnormal intra-annual and seasonal variability, especially the occurrence of extreme events, will be used for monitoring unexpected changes and sudden short term cattle price movements.

这项研究的目的是量化年度内和季节性农业气候变化对市场条件的影响，对“开放天空”畜牧业生产系统(如乌拉圭盛行的系统)的影响。永久性条件(土壤类型，包括生产力和蓄水能力)、草原季节性平均生长周期)将与非永久性条件(年度内和季节性气候变化)区别开来，使用等价格图确定区域格局。所选变量的影响程度通过它们在某一时刻对市场上牛群所接受价格的边际贡献来反映。利用近8年从现场牛视频拍卖中获得的每批交易信息来构建平均价格模式的置信区间。关于异常的年度内和季节变化的信息，特别是极端事件的发生，将用于监测意外变化和短期牛价的突然变动。

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