1.https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-08/gundlach-live-webcast-what-bond-king-expects-will-happen-2018
2.“Commenting on the Fed earlier, Gundlach said that Powell staged a "full capitulation" on Friday with comments that policy makers are “listening carefully” to markets, where he "went from pragmatic Powell to Powell put and the markets have been throwing a party since then." And so, with the market rebounding, Gundlach is "sure that Jay Powell and the Fed are feeling better about where they stand and their plans to do quantitative tightening further."
Meanwhile, a clear theme that has emerged is that for Gundlach the biggest variable in the market as we enter 2019 is the (declining) strength of the dollar, and looking at the following Fib and relative strength index, Gundlach has spotted a peak and cautions that should the 38 Fib retracement be breached, "I would not be surprised to see us moving quickly to 94 in the DXY" (he adds that for those who don't like to focus on technicals, you can "cover your ears and hum".)”
3.感想:新债王Gundlach又在新年初发布了自己的一年期预测,从中又有很多收货。
(1)经济预测 -- 总体持续悲观,全球经济陷入低迷
(a)第一次知道了韩国综合股价指数(Kospi)是全球贸易和商业的风向标,也是出口依赖型韩国经济的重要指标。大家可以查看到韩国股票市场的萎靡情况,从而推断出韩国出口贸易情况的恶化。
(b)花旗集团经济数据显示欧洲经济前景最不乐观
(c)全球央行缩表导致经济不振
(d)ISM 和 PMI暴跌
(2)发展中国家市场股票会打败标普500,如果美元持续下跌
(3)持续看衰欧洲经济
(4)最应该关注的是美元,下跌趋势明显
(5)美国债务过高,财政赤字
(6)借贷成本迅速提高,流动性收紧
4.昨日阅读1小时
5.累计阅读4.5小时
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