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昨日阅读1小时。 总阅读时间94小时
Book of Value - The Fine Art of Investing Wisely 2016(Anurag Sharma)
https://bbs.pinggu.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=6303889&from^^uid=109341(Page 253-258)
阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
Another Way to Portfolio
Clearly, the core idea of building diversified portfolios to temper the hazards of investing is sound, and it can be developed further— but we must first shed the pretense of objectivity and challenge the notion that risk can be measured using a simple statistic. Instead, we must acknowledge that risk is a complex construct that needs to be carefully assessed, and we must understand the importance of incorporating subjective probabilities into our thinking about how to construct diversified portfolios. Only then, as Markowitz had originally intended, can we harness the power of portfolio-level thinking. By understanding risk as uncertainties that surround an investment thesis, we can justify conducting deep business analysis so as to identify a handful or more suitable but unrelated companies that can be grouped into a well-conceived portfolio.
Conventional wisdom is that diversification helps protect the downside of negative portfolio performance, yet diversification also dampens the prospects of good performance. To take the mirror image of the example just described, if the probability of each company improving 20 percent in the next year were 25 percent, then the same logic would also rapidly reduce the upside of the portfolio. Just five independent companies in such a portfolio would almost ensure that you will not get a 20 percent improvement in the next year. In effect, if we assume probabilities to be symmetrical, then portfolio diversification not only protects against the downside but also dampens the upside. As such, even in theory, diversification enables a defensive posture by severely limiting upside potential. Furthermore, in times of crises, such as the recession following the technology-driven company market boom of the late 1990s or the deep recession following the financial market meltdown of 2008, the economic performances of even relatively unrelated companies become highly correlated because they are all subject to the same systemic issues. A receding tide lowers all boats. As such, when you need protection during a systemic downturn, high correlations undo the protective effects of diversification. As correlations among companies increase due to systemic factors such as recessions or panics, joint probabilities increase, and portfolio performance suffers. On the other hand, during economic recoveries or growth phases, whatever independence remains among the companies in the portfolio undermines the overall portfolio performance and growth.
阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
The concentration of investment depends on the confidence established during the value analysis. The greater the confidence, the more concentrated the portfolio can be: portfolio size increases with decreasing confidence in your abilities. In essence, a company must not be included in the portfolio just because the standard deviation of returns or the beta (β) is low. Whatever the past returns of a stock may be, the lack of a thorough effort to disconfirm the investment thesis for a company makes the investment speculative and raises hazards for the investor. Based on the mathematical logic of grouping stocks. The key to proper diversification is to realistically assess the probability of loss on individual commitments. , in order to estimate such probabilities properly, you need confident insights into the underlying valuation, or economic worth, of each company in the portfolio. Provided you can make realistic assessments of the odds, we will examine later, once you have confident estimates of value at hand, portfolios grounded in mathematical expectations can readily help produce strong upside with limited downside.
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