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Book of Value - The Fine Art of Investing Wisely 2016(Anurag Sharma)
https://bbs.pinggu.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=6303889&from^^uid=109341(Page 266-275)
Seeking for Growth Companies
阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
Investors have good reasons to avoid fast-growing companies. They usually trade at high prices relative to cautious valuations and are, therefore, easily refutable using the quantitative criteria we have developed so far. Prices incorporate high expectations of future growth, with implied growth rates much in excess of historical growth rates; sometimes, high prices prevail in spite of the lack of much operating history. Eager investors justify lofty prices by extrapolating recent high growth rates well into the distant future, sometimes even conjuring up a future far removed from reality.
Earnings yields are usually very low and dividends mostly non-existent for fast-growing companies, as they typically do not generate enough free cash flow to justify shareholder-friendly actions. Instead, as they pursue an expanding set of opportunities, growth companies raise much-needed capital either by taking on debt or by issuing more equity, which dilutes the ownership of existing shareholders. Rapidly rising prices make growth companies highly visible and fodder for endless speculation in the media, thereby providing them the marketing exposure that other stocks don’t usually get. The hype around such names then creates demand and attracts a mix of traders, gamblers, speculators, and the masses of retail investors, all afraid of missing what seems like a spectacular opportunity.
Defensive valuation plays only a small role, or none at all, in the pricing of high-flying growth stocks. The high prices at which they usually trade cannot be justified using any combination of reasonable assumptions in the discount model. All this makes growth stocks tantalizing and a source of much excitement. Untethered to economic value as they might be, growth stocks can continue rising to new heights, only to come crashing down when the spell breaks. Their performance depends almost entirely on collective imaginings about the future. Mixed in with the speculative stocks, however, are the stocks of genuine growth companies with sound business models and competent leadership; but it is not easy to distinguish one from the other. There is little by way of short cuts that can help sort true growth stocks from the ones that only appear to be so. A great deal of uncertainty often surrounds the investment potential of fast-growing companies, and it is seldom obvious whether they will continue on their rapid growth trajectory or come to a screeching halt. It is little surprise, then, that growth stocks tend to attract adrenaline-seeking traders and momentum investors who buy to gain from the rising prices; they are also quick to sell when prices seem to be turning the other way. As such, not only do growth stocks tend to become disconnected from any underlying economic reality of the companies in question, they are usually much more volatile than other stocks. This kind of excitement is often too much for cautious investors. They are, for the most part, neither interested in nor psychologically equipped to ride the emotional roller coaster that speculators may find appealing. Typically, they are disinclined to allow the performance of their core portfolio to depend on the impossible task of correctly anticipating when the herd will turn one way or the other. The constant fear of imminent price collapse more than negates any joy they may derive from a temporary ascent to a new high.
阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
Perhaps the greatest mistake people make when seeking growth is paying attention not to economics, but to fast-rising stock prices. The real problem for defense-oriented investors does not arise from chasing fast-rising stocks with no sustainable business model. The problem in fact arises from misjudging and paying too much for genuine growth by exaggerating future prospects.
Tencent (00700.HK) was a genuine growth company, but whether investors were paying more than a hefty premium for the shares. When Tencent share price soared to HK$476.6 it dropped sharply to HK$251.40 in a very short time later, the technology-fuelled bull market collapsed. In the past, those investing in other dominant companies in USA, such as Walmart, Home Depot, Microsoft, and Intel, experienced a similar fate. They paid too much for good companies.
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