昨天阅读5小时,累计阅读169小时
有两个必要条件,可以让中国将GDP增长作为一个“外生变量”,这是其他国家无法做到的。第一,必须没有硬性预算约束,它允许一个经济体年复一年地从事不创造价值的活动。其次,由此产生的坏账不能冲销。一旦这两个条件得到满足(就中国而言),中国政府就可以设定自己喜欢的任何增长目标,只要拥有必要的债务能力,就可以实现这一目标。
——Michael Pettis
The Chinese economy is not growing at 6.5 percent. Itis probably growing by less than half of that. Not everyone agrees that therate is that low, of course, but there is nonetheless a running debate aboutwhat is really happening in the Chinese economy and whether or not thecountry’s reported GDP growth is accurate.
中国经济增速没有6.5%,可能连它的一半都不到。当然,并不是所有人都同意中国目前的增长率有那么低。但关于中国经济到底发生了什么,以及中国公布的国内生产总值增速是否准确,仍存在持续的争论。
The reason for the widespread skepticism is thedisconnect between the official data and perceptions on the ground. Accordingto the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s economic growth in every quarterlast year exceeded 6.5 percent. While that is much lower than the heady growthrates China has experienced for most of the past forty years, it is still, bymost measures, a very brisk rate of growth.
人们普遍持怀疑态度的原因是,官方数据与实际情况脱节了。根据国家统计局的数据,中国去年每个季度的经济增长都超过了6.5%。尽管这远低于中国在过去四十年大部分时间里所经历的高速增长,但从多数指标来看,中国的经济增长仍然非常强劲。
And yet, when you speak to Chinese businesses,economists, or analysts, it is hard to find any economic sector enjoying decentgrowth. Almost everyone is complaining bitterly about terribly difficultconditions, rising bankruptcies, a collapsing stock market, and dashedexpectations. In my eighteen years in China, I have never seen this level offinancial worry and unhappiness.
然而,当你与中国企业、经济学家或分析人士交谈时,你很难发现任何一个经济部门有像样的增长。几乎每个人都在痛苦地抱怨极其艰难的环境、不断上升的破产的概率、崩溃的股市以及糟糕的预期。在中国的18年里,我从未见过人们有这种程度的财务困局和不快乐。
These concerns have even breached academia. One of mystudents told me yesterday that there was a huge increase last semester on theuniversity website in the number of students selling their belongings becausethey are hard up for cash. They are selling their phones, computers, clothing,and lots of other possessions. He said the amount of selling is noticeablyhigher than last year, enough so that everyone is talking about it. And heindicated that this is apparently happening at other schools too. It seems thatthe poor and middle-class kids are squeezed for cash because they are gettingmuch less money from home than they have in the past.
这些情况甚至已经蔓延到了学术界。我的一个学生昨天告诉我,上学期在学校网站上出售个人物品的学生人数有了很大的增长,因为他们手头拮据。他们正在出售他们的手机、电脑、衣服和许多其他财产。他说,销量明显高于去年,足以让所有人都在谈论它。他指出,这种情况在其他学校也很普遍。穷人和中产阶级的孩子似乎手头拮据,因为他们从家里得到的钱比过去少得多。
This isn’t what you’d expect to hear from an economygrowing at more than 6.5 percent. So what does it mean exactly to say thatChina’s GDP is growing at that pace? It turns out that there are threecompletely different sets of problems that affect how China’s GDP growthstatistics should be interpreted. Analysts must keep these three problems straightand make sure that they don’t confuse matters by conflating these separateissues.
这不是你所期望的在一个经济增长率超过6.5%的国家里看到的情景。那么,中国GDP以这样的速度增长到底意味着什么呢?事实证明,有三种完全不同的问题会影响中国GDP增长数据的解读。分析人士必须把这三个问题弄清楚,并确保他们不会把这三个独立的问题混为一谈。
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