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Our reading of these data is that from 2007 to 2017, as overall intermediation (measured by total assets) rose by two thirds to $333 trillion, banks became somewhat less important, with their share of global declining from 48% to 44% (the gray bars). Meanwhile, non-bank intermediaries’ share of total financial system assets increased from 31% to 36% (the yellow bars). So, it does appear that a shift is taking place.
Yet, a closer look across jurisdictions suggests no obvious link between higher worldwide capital requirements and the shift of intermediation toward non-banks. In the United States, where bank capital levels increased disproportionately over the decade ending 2017, banks’ share of intermediation rose—from 22% to 25%. Something similar happened in Canada and the United Kingdom, with banks’ shares rising from 27% to 30% and 54% to 56%, respectively. By contrast, the euro area looks completely different. There, banks had accounted for 60% of intermediation prior to the crisis. By 2017, despite capital ratios that lag U.S. norms, banks’ role in intermediation plunged: by 2017, euro-area banks accounted for just over 40% of total intermediation. To put some absolute figures to that, from 2007 to 2017, total euro-area intermediation rose from $58.2 trillion to $93.4 trillion―a nominal increase of 60%. Yet, euro-area bank assets stagnated, edging up by 3% from $33.7 trillion to $34.8 trillion. Once again, if anything, the evidence suggests that less well-capitalized intermediaries are less willing or less able to supply credit.
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