英文版：上海财经大学中国宏观经济2018-2019年度预测报告概要

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1 论文标题

Tackle China’s Economic Complexities by Deepening Reform and Opening-up: Macroeconomic Outlook, Policy Simulations, and Reform Implementation —

A Summary of the Annual SUFE Macroeconomic Report (2018-2019)

2 作者信息

Kevin X. D. Huang

Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University；

Institute for Advanced Research, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

Guoqiang Tian

Department of Economics, Texas A&M University；School of Economics and Institute for Advanced Research, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

Yuqin Wang

Institute for Advanced Research, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

3 出处
Kevin X.D. Huang, Guoqiang Tian, Yuqin Wang. Tackle China’s Economic Complexities by Deepening Reform and Opening Up: Macroeconomic Outlook, Policy Simulations, and Reform Implementation—A Summary of the Annual SUFE Macroeconomic Report (2018–2019)[J]. Front. Econ. China, 2019, 14(1): 80-109.

链接
http://journal.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/10.3868/s060-008-019-0006-2
http://journal.hep.com.cn/fec/EN/Y2019/V14/I1/80

4 摘要
Abstract：

Faced with complicated external and internal challenges, China’s economy continues to see sluggish growth in 2018. Rapid accumulation of household debts, exacerbation in income inequality, tightened real sector liquidity, escalated trade tensions with the US, and weakened external demand pose key problems in China’s macroeconomic landscape. The status quo is exacerbated by soaring uncertainty and weakening confidence in the face of persistent resource misallocations and institutional distortions, which cast more shadow on the already dampened consumer sentiment, sluggish private investment growth, and fallen foreign reserves. This summary report highlights the urgency of deeper structural reforms for tackling the various internal and external problems. Based on the IAR-CMM model, with both cyclical and secular factors taken into consideration, our baseline forecast of real GDP growth rate is 6.4% (6.1% using more reliable instead of the official data) in 2019. Alternative scenario analyses and policy simulations are conducted to assess the consequences of possible downside risks and the corresponding policy options needed to ensure the assumed growth targets. These analyses lead us to conclude that comprehensively deepening reform and opening up, which should be both rule-of-law based and market-oriented, with well-designed and well-conceived strategies that properly weigh short-, medium-, and long-term benefits and costs, should continue to be set as the guidance for China’s transformation into a phase with sustainable and high-quality growth.

深化改革开放，应对复杂局面：宏观经济展望、政策模拟及改革实施——

上海财经大学中国宏观经济2018-2019年度预测报告概要

黄晓东

范德比尔特大学经济系

上海财经大学高等研究院

田国强

得州农工大学经济系

上海财经大学经济学院、高等研究院

王玉琴

上海财经大学高等研究院

摘  要：2018年，中国经济在内外部错综复杂的多重挑战中持续缓慢增长。家庭债务快速累积、收入分配情况恶化、实体领域流动性收紧、与美国的贸易战升级以及外需疲软给中国宏观经济形势带来重大问题。持续的资源错配和制度扭曲使得不确定性上升、信心削弱，更加恶化现状，为业已抑制的消费者信心、迟滞的私人投资增长和下滑的外汇储备蒙上更多阴影。本报告概要强调了推进深层结构改革以应对各种内外部问题的迫切性。基于上海财经大学高等研究院中国宏观经济预测模型（IAR-CMM模型）分析结果，综合考虑周期性和长期性因素，我们预计在基准情景下2019年中国全年实际GDP增速为6.4%（校正后为6.1%）。我们做了多种情景分析和政策模拟，以评估潜在下行风险的可能后果，以及要实现预期增长目标所需的相应政策选择。通过这些分析，我们的结论是，在中国向可持续、高质量增长阶段的转型过程中，在精心设计周密策划、综合考量短、中、长期效益与成本的战略部署下，以法治为基础、以市场化为导向全面深化改革开放，应当继续作为指导原则。

背景简介：

一年一度的上海财经大学中国宏观经济预测报告采取了国际前沿、国内较为独特的基于准结构模型的情境分析（alternative scenario analyses）和政策模拟（policy simulations）方法，在对统计数据和经济信息充分收集和科学鉴别校正的基础上，对中国宏观经济最新形势进行严谨分析，对未来发展趋势进行客观预测，并提供各种政策情景模拟结果供决策参考。

上海财经大学高等研究院“中国宏观经济形势分析与预测”课题组成立于2009年，旨在以一种开放式的科研组织模式，凝聚海内外相关研究力量，对中国宏观经济进行长期跟踪研究，定期（目前以季度为出版频率，一年4期）发布中国宏观经济形势分析与预测报告，为政府、企业及社会各界提供有参考价值的经济洞见、政策对策及长期治理建议，推动中国经济的长期稳定增长和可持续发展以及国家治理能力和治理体系的现代化。

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