2010年2月南美中央银行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月南美中央银行业研究报告
        【作者】：法国兴业银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：33
        【目录或简介】：


Editorial
We revisit the exit strategy in Latin America. With economic recovery
gaining traction, it is now time to start withdrawing last year’s
massive monetary stimulus. But the differences between expected
recovery patterns will yield an uneven response across the region.
Wide output gaps and limited inflation expectations make an
aggressive tightening phase unlikely. We expect Brazil to lead the
way in hikes, followed by Chile. Mexico may wait for Q3.
􀂄 This week’s economic focus
(1) Poland’s public finances plan and convergence programme.
(2) Czech economy set to slow again in H1 2010.
􀂄 FX trade summary
We took profit on short CLP vs MXN and KRW trades. Although we
now see USD/CLP as extremely overbought, we stand aside in our
model portfolio due to a pre-existing concentration of pro-LatAm
trades. In EEMEA, our long positions have suffered on growing
concerns about eurozone sovereign risks. Nevertheless, we maintain
our long exposure. In Turkey, the possibility of a sooner-thanexpected
rate hike reinforces our TRY-bullish view. We stay short
EUR/TRY and long TRY/ZAR.
􀂄 Euro convergence yield analysis for CE3
Recent worries about Greece, Portugal and Spain will create some
headwinds against further EMU expansion. We still think Poland and
Hungary can adopt the euro by 2015, but the Czech Republic is more
likely to do so in 2017. The risk of further delay remains, especially if
European sovereign risks linger.
􀂄 FX technical analysis
USD/MXN should extend the recovery initiated in the 12.44/48
support area in December over the coming weeks, with a minimum
target at 13.81/85.

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