原文作者:Christoffer Wadström, Emanuel Wittberg, Gazi Salah Uddin, Ranadeva Jayasekera
一作单位:Department of Management and Engineering, Linköping University, Sweden
期刊名:Energy Economics
期刊月份: 2019.06
关键词:可再生能源,经济增长,非线性,格兰杰因果关系,加拿大
Abstract
Several scholars have highlighted the idea that energy consumption in general and consumption of renewable energy (RE) in particular may be a potential driver of economic growth. In this paper, we examine the relationship between RE production and economic activity in Canada between May 1966 and December 2015. By applying quantile causality (Troster, 2018), we adopt a nonlinear approach considering all quantiles of the distribution and analysing monthly data consisting of RE production and the Canadian Industrial Production Index (IPI). We find evidence of a nonlinear relationship in Canada, an important result that widely-used linear models fail to capture. Our main findings imply a unidirectional relationship going from the IPI to RE production, which supports the Conservation hypothesis. The directionality between RE and economic growth is sensitive to the market conditions in Canada.
能源的发展被视为促进现代化社会繁荣的关键因素,然而,它也会对环境造成负面影响。全球气候变化问题与化石能源的快速发展有着密切的关系。因此,可再生能源的发展将是实现经济增长和环境治理的一种可能的选择。
在本文中,作者研究了1966年5月至2015年12月期间加拿大可再生能源生产与经济活动之间的关系。采用非线性方法分析可再生能源生产以及加拿大工业生产指数的月度数据之间的分布关系。与一般的研究相比,该研究不仅测试了平均值之间的关系,还通过分位数分析来测试二者之间的非线性关系。研究使用了大量的月度数据集,包括500多个观测值。研究结果表明,加拿大能源发展与经济增长之间可能存在一般反馈关系,但可再生能源对经济的影响较弱。此外,可再生能源发展与经济增长之间相互影响的方向性对市场状况十分敏感。
转自公众号《3E论文速递》