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英文文献：Testing the Predictability of Consumption Growth: Evidence from China-检验消费增长的可预测性:来自中国的证据
英文文献作者：Liping Gao,Hyeongwoo Kim
英文文献摘要：
Chow (1985, 2010, 2011) reports indirect evidence in favor of the permanent income hypothesis using time series observations in China. We revisit this issue by evaluating direct measures of the predictability of consumption growth in China during the post-economic reform regime (1978-2009) as well as the postwar US data for comparison. Our in-sample analysis provides strong evidence against the PIH for both countries. Out-of-sample forecast exercises show that consumption changes are highly predictable, which sharply contrasts the implication of Chow (1985, 2010, 2011).
Chow(1985,2010, 2011)利用中国的时间序列观察报告了支持永久收入假设的间接证据。通过评估中国后经济改革时期(1978-2009年)消费增长可预测性的直接指标，以及战后美国的数据，我们重新讨论了这个问题。我们的样本内分析为两国的PIH提供了强有力的证据。样本外预测实践表明，消费变化具有高度可预测性，这与Chow(1985, 2010, 2011)的含义形成鲜明对比。
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