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雷达卡
【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月美国品牌服饰零售行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：210
【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Executive Summary........................................................................... 3
Cautious on specialty apparel stocks, as valuations outpace growth potential.........................3
2009 was about owning the sector ..........................................................................................3
2010 will be about picking stocks, but based on new themes .................................................4
Which stocks will out-perform in 2010?....................................................................................7
Industry valuation......................................................................................................................9
Risks ......................................................................................................................................11
Theme #1: FY10 sales drivers a mixed bag.................................... 12
A ‘less bad’ macro should help...............................................................................................12
Easing compares provide some footing for apparel sales ......................................................16
Housing bottom helps retailers with home furnishings exposure...........................................19
‘Sales up for grabs’ theme loses steam in 2010.....................................................................21
Mall exposure remains a problem, but for some more than others........................................25
Theme #2: Discounts and inventories better for now, but risks
remain............................................................................................... 27
Apparel discounting and promotions: Improved in 2009, but still prevalent ...........................27
Inventories more rational, but stocks have ‘priced in’ that news............................................30
Theme #3: Cost trends: Good news, bad news ............................ 34
FY09: Companies cutting fat and investing for post-recession ...............................................34
...but some retailer costs should trend up in 2010..................................................................36
Theme #4: On-line & foreign growth are ‘game changers’, but not
for all retailers.................................................................................. 42
Theme #5: Off-price model remains viable as economy improves
........................................................................................................... 45
What concerns investors about ‘off-price’ retailers?...............................................................45
The trade-off: bad economy vs. good economy .....................................................................45
Quantifying three key questions .............................................................................................46
Abercrombie & Fitch Co.................................................................. 50
The Gap, Inc. .................................................................................... 74
Urban Outfitters, Inc. .................................................................... 112
Ross Stores Inc .............................................................................. 138
The TJX Companies, Inc................................................................ 172
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