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【出版时间及名称】：MITSUBISHI-JAPAN QUARTERLY OUTLOOK-OUR FY10 TO FY12 SCENARIOS-100304
【作者】：mitsubishi
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：40
【目录或简介】：
Contents
JGB Market Outlook page 3
We expect the benchmark yield will remain in a 1.2%~1.6% range until H1
FY11 amid an evenly balanced tug-of-war between fundamentals and the
risk premium. Then an adjustment up into the 1.5%-2.0% range is likely as
the BoJ begins preparing the groundwork for rate normalization.
Macroeconomic Outlook page 20
We have revised our GDP growth forecasts through FY12 based on an
upward revision of our yen exchange rate forecast. We expect moderate
economic growth to continue, but the sense of economic stagnation will
grow stronger.
Policy Watch page 29
Our outlook for the start of BoJ rate normalization remains H2 FY12 at the
earliest. Serious discussions about fiscal reconstruction and tax system
reform will not start until FY11. A consumption tax hike will likely come in
FY14, following the summer of 2013 Upper and Lower House elections
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