2010年3月美国管理医疗行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月美国管理医疗行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：36
        【目录或简介】：

We are raising our view on the Managed Care group to
Attractive from In-Line, for the following reasons.
1. Several potential catalysts to help sentiment.
Looking out over the next 6-18 months, several
things could lift sentiment toward MCOs such as:
1) rising interest rates to drive stronger
investment income, 2) stabilizing unemployment,
and 3) continuing strong cash flows leading to
buybacks/debt paydown and, by 2011, dividends.
2. 3-year EPS growth “kicker”: A +100-200 bps
investment yield lift could drive 5-15% EPS
upside over time. If spread over 3 years, this
would add 200-500 bps to annual growth.
3. Comprehensive reform less likely. We peg the
odds of comprehensive health reform at less than
25%, with much higher probability of either a
scaled down version or nothing. At this point,
reconciliation appears the only viable path for
comprehensive reform and this is fraught with
political and logistical challenges.
4. Risk/rewards attractive: Following strong Q4
results, we think fundamentals should strengthen
into 2011-12, and see upside approaching 20%
for the group. As long as the reform process
results in legislation that is not worse than that
expected in late December, we believe the group
can outperform the market from here. Since the
group has dropped nearly 5% since YE09, when
Congress was set to conference on the Senate
bill, we see limited sustained downside.
Upgrading CVH from EW to OW. With the turnaround
progressing, growth in core businesses set to outpace
peers, and an in-line valuation we are upgrading CVH
from EW to OW with a $28 PT, reflecting ~20+% upside.

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