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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月中国集装箱行业研究报告
【作者】：野村证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：60
【目录或简介】：
Action
With improving container demand and delivery of new containerships driving a
recovery in container box production, we initiate coverage of the container
manufacturing sector with a Bullish view. Amid a box shortage, we see a rise in box
production, leading to an earnings turnaround from 2010F onwards. We initiate
coverage of CIMC and Singamas (the lead global producers) with BUY ratings.
􀁡 Catalysts
Catalysts include stronger-than-expected container demand, an increase in
containership supply and rise in container box prices.
Anchor themes
Following an increase in container demand and delivery of containership, we
expect a recovery in container box demand, leading to a 100%-plus increase in box
production. Our current production forecast could prove conservative if container
demand rebounds higher than expected.
Restart of container box production
􀁣 Container manufacturing sector has bottomed
Despite a sharp decline in container box production in 2009 with the majority of
production lines suspended, we believe box production has started to recover
gradually from end-2009 and will likely grow further in 2010-11F owing to a
recovery in container demand and delivery of new containerships. Our positive
view on box production is further supported by the current container box shortage,
which has led to a rebound in container box prices from an average of US$1,600-
1,700/TEU in 2009 to more than US$2,100/TEU. Indeed, our production forecasts
could prove conservative if container volumes rebound by more than expected.
􀁤 Expect container box production to grow in 2010F
We forecast global new box output to be 1.7mn TEUs in 2010F, up sharply from
the low of only 305,000 TEUs in 2009F. For 2011F, we expect box production to
increase to 3.4mn TEUs.
􀁥 Initiate coverage of CIMC and Singamas with BUY ratings
We initiate coverage of the two largest box producers in the container
manufacturing sector — China International Marine Containers (CIMC) and
Singamas. Based on our discounted cashflow valuation (DCF), we rate the shares
of both as BUY. Our price targets are RMB18.00 for CIMC and HK$1.60 for
Singamas.
􀁦 Upcoming catalysts, possible risks
Potential catalysts include higher-than-expected container demand driven by
inventory restocking and improving economic data, and an increase in
containership supply with the return of idled capacity and easing of ship financing.
Downside risks to our thesis include a global economic slowdown and failure to
pass higher material costs on to customers.
Contents
Executive summary 3
Box production back in action 3
Already pointing to shortage of boxes… 3
… highlighted by rising box prices 3
Our BULLISH sector view 4
Attractive valuation — BUY CIMC and Singamas 4
Risks to our investment view 6
Restart of container box production 7
Key production driver 1 — improving global container demand 8
Key production driver 2 — shortage of container boxes 10
Key production driver 3 — containership supply leads to rebalancing of the slot
ratio 11
Conclusion: Bullish view on the container manufacturing sector 13
Container manufacturing background 15
From fragmentation to oligopoly 15
Ownership profile of container boxes 15
Age breakdown of global container boxes 16
Selling price of boxes based on cost-plus pricing model 17
Steel accounts for majority of costs, hence determines box ASP 18
CIMC and Singamas: likely winners in box production recovery 20
Latest company views
CIMC 24
Singamas Container Holdings 45
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