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英文文献：Modeling South Africa’s Meat Import Demand System-模拟南非的肉类进口需求系统
英文文献作者：Taha, Fawzi A.,Hahn, William F.
英文文献摘要：
A modified Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) differential model was used to provide the first estimate of South Africa’s meat import demand system. In addition to price and scale the model also included a trend and trend-squared term to measure changes in technology and/or consumer demands for meat outputs. Cross-prices elasticity (cij) indicates that poultry is a statistically significant substitute for pork, sheep/goat, and offal. Scale coefficients were highly significant, positive for beef and negative for other meat. The trend and squared trend terms were also highly significant, implying changes in import demand not driven by price or scale changes. During 1997-2010 periods, changes in import demand caused poultry and pork to rise and import demand for beef, sheep/goat, and offal meats to decline. A simulation model was developed that converted an expected CBS endogenous into “predicted” quantities. The in-sample quantity predictions are remarkably accurate, indicating the model performs very well in forecasting South Africa’s meat imports given prices and scale. Results of model simulations conclusively demonstrate meat changes similar to the CBS model.
本文采用经修改的中央统计局(CBS)差分模型对南非肉类进口需求体系进行初步估算。除了价格和规模，该模型还包括一个趋势和趋势平方项，以衡量技术变化和/或消费者对肉类产出的需求。交叉价格弹性(cij)表明，家禽在统计上是猪肉、绵羊/山羊和内脏的重要替代品。量表系数高度显著，牛肉为正，其他肉类为负。趋势项和平方趋势项也非常显著，这意味着进口需求的变化不是由价格或规模变化驱动的。在1997-2010年期间，进口需求的变化导致家禽和猪肉的增长，而牛肉、绵羊/山羊和内脏肉的进口需求下降。开发了一个模拟模型，该模型将预期的CBS内生变量转换为“预测的”数量。样本内数量的预测非常准确，表明在给定价格和规模的情况下，该模型在预测南非肉类进口方面表现非常好。模型模拟结果表明，肉的变化与CBS模型相似。
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