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英文文献：Assessing the Impact of Southeast Asia's Increasing Meat Demand on Global Feed Demand and Prices-评估东南亚日益增长的肉类需求对全球饲料需求和价格的影响
英文文献作者：Hansen, James M.
英文文献摘要：
Over the past 20 years increasing global growth and increased per capita income have led to significant changes in food production, consumption and trade for many countries. As incomes and urbanization increase, food consumption patterns exhibit increased demand for a more diversified diet increasing meat and dairy consumption, which leads to improved meat production systems and modern animal science-based feed rations. Greater demand for feed grains and oilseeds is provided by domestic production and through imports. This study analyzes the effects of Southeast Asia's changing food consumption patterns on agriculture production, consumption, and trade out to the year 2021. The impact of increasing consumption of poultry and pork and increased meat production and feed demand on domestic agricultural markets of Southeast Asia and international markets is assessed. Countries analyzed include Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia. Results provide insights to potential higher global feed prices in the near future and constraints to expanding production. Global markets respond to higher feed prices through increased production and decreased demand.
在过去20年里，全球增长的增加和人均收入的增加使许多国家的粮食生产、消费和贸易发生了重大变化。随着收入和城市化的增加，食品消费模式显示出对更多样化饮食的需求增加，肉类和奶制品消费增加，这导致了肉类生产系统的改善和基于现代动物科学的饲料配给。国内生产和进口增加了对饲料谷物和油料种子的需求。本研究分析到2021年东南亚变化的食品消费模式对农业生产、消费和贸易的影响。报告评估了家禽和猪肉消费的增加以及肉类生产和饲料需求的增加对东南亚国内农业市场和国际市场的影响。分析的国家包括菲律宾、印度尼西亚、越南、泰国和马来西亚。研究结果揭示了全球饲料价格在不久的将来可能会上涨，以及扩大生产的制约因素。全球市场通过增加产量和减少需求来应对饲料价格上涨。
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