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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月欧洲重工业行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：68
【目录或简介】：
We increase our mining revenue assumptions by some 5% for 2011
across the board for mining exposed names such as Atlas Copco, Metso,
Outotec and Sandvik, whilst we recently increased our estimates for
Weir Group by 20%. This brings our volume and EBIT assumptions
some 5% and 10% ahead of the street for 2011. We highlight Atlas
Copco, Outotec and Weir as the key names to invest in to benefit from
the favorable trends in mining capex.
• The top miners indicate capex up 10% in 2010 vs 2008 (peak). We
forecast a more subdued recovery and expect mining equipment
revenues to return to prior highs in the coming 2-3yrs after being down
some 35% in 2009. We believe the strong continued commodity
demand especially from Emerging Markets will result in a “pinchpoint”
between demand and supply around 2015, triggering new capex
investment in the coming years.
• Mining capex the most likely way to deploy cash according to the
J.P. Morgan Cazenove Mining Team led by David Butler. With strong
balance sheets and commodity price levels well above incentive prices,
we see capex investments as the most likely purpose of the significant
cash creation. According to our Mining Team’s forecasts for 2010-14
the top four miners (Rio, AAL, BHP and Xstrata) could create some
US$120bn in free cash flow vs US$85bn in 2005-09.
• Secondary trends bode well for Outotec and Atlas Copco. We note
a secondary growth trend in underground mining which bodes well for
Atlas Copco in particular, in our view. We also see a trend towards
more greenfield investments and more complex and lower ore grades
as an important incentive to use Outotec’s proprietary technology.
• Changes in price targets: Atlas Copco to SKr130 (Skr125), Sandvik
to SKr88 (SKr85), Outotec to
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