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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月英国电力行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：65
【目录或简介】：
Our analysis shows that the UK power companies face an uncertain
environment, characterised by weak power prices, increasingly
onerous environmental legislation, significant capex to replace aging
capacity and political uncertainty.
• We believe that the companies best placed to navigate this
environment are those with: (i) strong balance sheets (ii) clean
generation capacity (iii) significant customer exposure.
• Our key pick in the sector remains Centrica, which has net debt to
ebitda of 1.1x, the cleanest generation fleet in the UK and a fast
growing energy services business. On our estimates Centrica will grow
EPS by 38% from 2009 to 2012 despite the weak power price
environment, which compares to flat or declining earnings for the
other companies. We have introduced an end-10 SOTP-based price
target of 375p, which implies 28% upside from the current share price.
• Our key Underweight remains Drax, where we see declining
earnings power through to 2013 due to weak UK power prices, allied
with the loss of free CO2 permits. Although we expect power prices to
recover from 2014 onwards we believe that Drax's load factor will
continue to fall as more renewable capacity comes on line. We have
introduced an end-10 SOTP-based price target of 330p.
• We have downgraded our International Power recommendation to
Neutral from Overweight. Although we believe its diverse generation
mix will mitigate some of the risk from the weak power price
environment, we still forecast declining EPS in 2010 and 2011. We
believe that continued share price outperformance, the shares have
outperformed the UK utilities sector by 27.5% over the last year, may
be difficult given the negative earnings momentum. We have
introduced an end-10 SOTP-based price target of 340p.
• We have downgraded our Scottish and Southern recommendation
to Underweight from Neutral. We forecast flat EPS to 2011/12 and
increasing pressure on the balance sheet due to its sizeable capex
programme. In the medium term we see earnings headwinds from more
onerous environmental legislation. We have introduced a Mar-11
SOTP-based price target of 1,015p.
Table of Contents
Key Investment Points .............................................................3
Replacement requirement .......................................................6
Decarbonising the generation fleet.........................................9
Fuel mix .....................................................................................................................10
Power demand........................................................................13
Smart meter rollout ....................................................................................................14
International experience of smart meters ...................................................................15
Plant margins .............................................................................................................15
The outlook for UK gas prices ..............................................17
Outlook for LNG .......................................................................................................19
UK regas capacity......................................................................................................19
Liquefaction capacity.................................................................................................20
North American unconventional gas..........................................................................21
Global gas demand.....................................................................................................22
Political uncertainty ...............................................................24
Existing Government Intervention.............................................................................24
Problems with the current schemes............................................................................26
Conservative Party policy ..........................................................................................27
Labour Party policy ...................................................................................................27
Company Profiles...................................................................29
Centrica...................................................................................30
OW, Dec 10 price target of 375p ...............................................................................30
Downstream growth, upstream flexibility..................................................................30
Valuation....................................................................................................................32
Financials...................................................................................................................34
Drax .........................................................................................37
UW, Dec 10 price target of 330p ...............................................................................37
Structurally and Cyclically Challenged .....................................................................37
Valuation....................................................................................................................38
Financials...................................................................................................................38
International Power ................................................................41
Downgrading to Neutral, Dec 10 price target 340p ...................................................41
Diversity mitigates risk ..............................................................................................41
Valuation....................................................................................................................43
Financials...................................................................................................................44
Scottish & Southern Energy..................................................47
Downgrading to UW, Mar 11 price target of 1,015p .................................................47
Challenges ahead .......................................................................................................47
Valuation....................................................................................................................51
Financials...................................................................................................................52
Valuation Methodology and Risks ........................................55
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