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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月中国消费零售行业研究报告
【作者】：MIRAE ASSET
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：26
【目录或简介】：
.Acquiring GMS – Buy Lianhua
Lianhua (980 HK) announced on 25 March its intention to acquire the GMS hypermarket chain from Bailian Group (the parentco) as soon as Bailian’s stake acquisition from KPI is completed. In reference to the public release by KPI (605 HK), the total consideration for the 48% GMS stake transfer to Bailian amounts to RMB441.8mn, i.e. about 34x FY08 headline P/E or 2.1x Jun-09 P/B.
Stock highlights in the past week
Company
Ticker
Rating
FY10E P/E (x)
2-year PEG (x)
Target price
Belle
1880 HK
Reduce
24.1
1.4
HK$8.3
CRE
291 HK
Buy
33.8
2.1
HK$35.0
Dongxiang
3818 HK
Hold
16.9
1.9
HK$5.4
Hengan
1044 HK
Buy
26.9
1.5
HK$66.0
Lianhua
980 HK
Buy
28.2
1.5
HK$29.0
SinoPharm
1099 HK
Buy
55.4
2.9
HK$36.0
Tingyi
322 HK
Reduce
29.6
2.1
HK$16.2
Note: Prices as of March 26, 2010
We believe that Lianhua will likely go through a business growth cycle in the next two years, which will be fuelled by not only profit margin improvement (through organic business recovery), but also volume expansion (through active corporate acquisitions). We reiterate Buy.
» Highlights of the past week
Belle (1880 HK) saw FY09 net profit grow 26.0% YoY to RMB2.53bn on only 10.7% YoY sales revenue rise. We reiterate Reduce, TP HK$8.30.
China Dongxiang (3818 HK) saw FY09 new profit grow 6.7% YoY to RMB1.46bn, in line with our and Bloomberg consensus estimates. Maintain Hold, TP unchanged at HK$5.40.
CRE (291 HK) saw recurring net profit from continuing operations grow 11.6% YoY, in line with our forecast. We reiterate Buy. We finetuned our forecasts and reduced our SOTP TP from HK$36.60 to HK$35.
Hengan (1044 HK) saw FY09 net profit grow 57.9% YoY to HK$2.12bn, 3% ahead of our and Bloomberg consensus estimates. We reiterate Buy. TP raised from HK$62.10 to HK$66.
SinoPharm (1099 HK) saw FY09 net profit grow 43.9% YoY to RMB846mn, in line with the IPO prospectus forecast but below our and Bloomberg consensus forecast. We reiterate Buy, TP raised from HK$33.60 to HK$36.
T
ingyi (322 HK) saw FY09 net profit grow 47% YoY to US$383.2mn, which was 2.5% ahead of our forecast but 2% below Bloomberg consensus forecast. Maintain Reduce, TP raised to HK$16.20.
Huiyuan Juice (1886 HK), Jingkelong (814 HK) and eight other sector companies also announced results in the past week. Please refer to contents for result details.
» The week ahead
Yurun (1068 HK) is due to announce final results to 31 Dec 2009 on 29 March. We look for 26.8% YoY net profit growth to HK$1.44bn, Buy, TP HK$26.0; Lianhua (980 HK) is due to report final results to 31 Dec 2009 on 30 March. We look for 5.7% YoY earnings increase to RMB410.6mn, Buy, TP HK$29.0; Ports Design (589 HK) will report final results to 31 Dec 2009 on 30 March. We look for 15.5% YoY net profit growth to RMB487mn, Buy, TP HK$24.0; China Foods (506 HK), China Agri (606 HK), and eight other sector companies will also announce results in the week ahead. Please refer to contents for result previews.
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