Spatial Variation in Flood Risk Perception: A Spatial Econometric Approach-...

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英文文献：Spatial Variation in Flood Risk Perception: A Spatial Econometric Approach-洪水风险感知的空间变异:空间计量方法
英文文献作者：Atreya, Ajita,Ferreira, Susana
英文文献摘要：
We use hedonic property models to estimate the spatial variation in flood risk perception in the city of Albany, GA. In addition to knowing whether a property lies in the floodplain, we have a unique dataset with actual inundation maps from tropical storm Alberto that hit Albany in 1994. In the absence of information on the structural damages caused by a flood, having information on the actual inundated area can be useful to tease out the information effect of a flood shock from potential reconstruction or other costs. We find that the discount for properties in the inundated area is substantially larger than in comparable properties in the floodplain areas that did not get inundated. Our results suggest that not accounting for whether properties in the floodplains are also in the inundated area may overestimate the informational effect of large flood events. In addition of capturing an information effect, the larger discount in inundated properties captures potential reconstruction costs, and supports a hypothesis that homeowners respond better to what they have visualized (“seeing is believing”).

利用特征属性模型估计了佐治亚州奥尔巴尼市洪水风险感知的空间变异。除了了解一处房产是否位于泛滥平原之外，我们还有一个独特的数据集，其中包含1994年热带风暴阿尔贝托袭击奥尔巴尼时的实际淹没地图。在缺乏关于洪水造成的结构破坏的信息的情况下，掌握实际被淹没地区的信息有助于从潜在的重建或其他成本中梳理出洪水冲击的信息影响。我们发现被淹没地区的房屋的折扣比未被淹没的漫滩地区的同类房屋的折扣要大得多。我们的结果表明，不考虑洪泛区是否也在被淹没地区，可能会高估大型洪水事件的信息效应。除了获取信息效应之外，被淹没房屋的较大折扣也获取了潜在的重建成本，这也支持了一个假设，即房主对他们所看到的情况反应更好(“眼见为实”)。

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