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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月印度银行业研究报告
【作者】：BNP百富勤
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：40
【目录或简介】：
Time to book profit
Valuations ahead of fundamentals: Notwithstanding a sanguine
fundamental outlook, we believe the valuations in the sector are looking rich. We
see relatively more margin of safety in select PSU banks. Our top picks at this
stage are Bank of Baroda (BOB) and Union Bank of India (UNBK). We also
recommend a BUY on HDFC Bank (HDFCB) and IndusInd Bank (IIB). A detailed
sector valuation analysis is presented later in the report.
Our preferred picks: We find relatively more margin of safety in BOB,
UNBK, HDFCB and IIB. We raise our target prices for BOB to INR775 (from
INR600), UNBK to INR350 (from INR325), HDFCB to INR2,150 (from INR1,900)
and IIB to INR200 (from INR185). At our revised TPs, BOB and UNBK would
trade at 1.83x and 1.77x FY11E ABV for ROEs of 18.8% and 19.6% respectively.
Our key recommendation changes: We downgrade Axis Bank, SBI, BOI
and PNB to HOLD, from Buy. Axis Bank has been our top pick in the sector since
9 Feb 2009, and we now downgrade the stock as it has achieved our TP and
looks fully valued (Axis Bank has outperformed the Sensex by 94% and the
Bankex by 61% in the past one year). We also downgrade PNB as our price
target has been achieved. We expect speed bumps for SBI over the next 2-3
quarters, as we foresee credit deterioration from its restructured loan book, need
for provision coverage ramp-up and potential dilution from a rights issue. For BOI,
we are concerned about fresh slippages from restructured loans. We recommend
that investors look for better entry points for fresh positions into these names.
Outlook for FY11: We expect a system-average loan growth of 20% for FY11
and largely flat NIMs. We expect credit-cost pressures to persist for another one
or two quarters for banks like SBI, BOI, PNB and Axis Bank. Sanctions pipeline
looks good but we expect disbursements to take off gradually into FY11. The
sector is likely to stay range bound in anticipation of monetary tightening by the
RBI over the coming two quarters.
Valuation: At our revised target prices - our corresponding recommendations,
FY11E P/adjusted BV and FY11E adjusted ROEs for our coverage banks are:
BOB (BUY, 1.8x, 18.8%), UNBK (BUY, 1.8x,19.6%), HDFCB (BUY, 4.0x,18%),
IIB (BUY, 3.0x,16%), AXSB (HOLD, 2.9x,18.5%), SBIN (HOLD, 1.5x, 11.3%),
ICICIBC (HOLD, 1.6x, 7.8%), PNB (HOLD, 1.9x, 23.2%) and BOI (HOLD, 1.4x,
16.1%).
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