英文文献:What are the effects of input subsidy programs on equilibrium maize prices? Evidence from Malawi and Zambia-投入补贴计划对均衡玉米价格的影响是什么?证据来自马拉维和赞比亚
英文文献作者:Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob E.,Mason, Nicole M.,Jayne, Thomas S.,Darko, Francis Addeah,Tembo, Solomon
英文文献摘要:
An important hypothesized benefit of large-scale input subsidy programs in Africa is that by raising maize production, the subsidies should put downward pressure on retail maize prices to the benefit of urban consumers and the rural poor who tend to be net food buyers. To inform debates related to this rationale for input subsidies, this study estimates the effects of fertilizer subsidies on retail maize prices in Malawi and Zambia using market or district-level panel data covering the 2000/01 to 2011/12 maize marketing years. Results indicate that roughly doubling the size of Malawi’s subsidy program (i.e., increasing the amount of subsidized fertilizer distributed to each district by 4,000 metric tons per year) reduces maize prices by 1.2% to 1.6% on average. In Zambia, roughly doubling the scale of the country’s subsidy program (i.e., increasing the amount of subsidized fertilizer distributed to each district by 1,000 metric tons per year) reduces maize prices by 1.8% to 2.4% on average. The results are robust across countries and model specifications, and indicate that the fertilizer subsidy programs in Malawi and Zambia have had a minimal effect on reducing retail maize prices.
非洲大规模投入补贴计划的一个重要假设好处是,通过提高玉米产量,补贴将对玉米零售价格施加下行压力,有利于城市消费者和农村贫困人口,他们往往是食品的净购买者。本研究利用2000/01至2011/12玉米销售年份的市场或地区面板数据,估算了肥料补贴对马拉维和赞比亚玉米零售价格的影响。结果表明,将马拉维补贴计划的规模扩大一倍(即每年向每个地区增加4000公吨补贴化肥的数量),玉米价格平均下降1.2%至1.6%。在赞比亚,将国家补贴计划的规模扩大一倍(即每年向每个地区增加1000公吨化肥补贴),玉米价格平均下降1.8%至2.4%。研究结果在各国和模型规格中都很可靠,并表明马拉维和赞比亚的化肥补贴项目对降低玉米零售价格的影响很小。