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英文文献：Seasonal Quality Premiums for Wheat-小麦的季节性品质提高
英文文献作者：Loy, Jens-Peter,Holm, Thore,Steinhagen, Carsten,Glauben, Thomas
英文文献摘要：
Seasonal variations of the price premium between bread and feed wheat indicate opportunities to profitably adjusting the grain marketing strategy of farmers that harvest (and store) both qualities. In this paper, we estimate the seasonal pattern of wheat price premiums on the German market by a vector error correction (VECM) approach, which accounts for multivariate autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity of the error terms. Results indicate a significant downward trend for the premium during the marketing season. The trend’s magnitude depends on the average quality of harvested wheat. If farmers have facilities so separately store bread and feed wheat, they should tend to postpone (move forward) their sales of feed (bread) wheat towards the end (beginning) of the season, particularly in years of low average wheat qualities. The volatility of the price premium significantly decreases over the season indicating higher risks at the beginning.
面包和饲料小麦之间价格溢价的季节性变化表明，农民有机会调整收获(和储存)两种品质的粮食营销策略。摘要本文利用矢量误差修正方法估计了德国市场上小麦价格溢价的季节性模式，该方法考虑了误差项的多元自回归条件异方差。结果表明，在销售季节的溢价有明显的下降趋势。这一趋势的大小取决于小麦的平均品质。如果农民有这样的设施将面包和饲料小麦分开存放，他们应该倾向于在季末(开始)推迟饲料(面包)小麦的销售，特别是在小麦平均品质较低的年份。价格溢价的波动性在季度内显著下降，表明风险在开始时较高。
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