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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月韩国科技行业研究报告
【作者】：BNP百勤
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：28
【目录或简介】：
􀂃 Strong PC and CE growth deepens component shortages.
􀂃 Subsidized demand boost for TV leads to stronger-than-expected LCD demand.
􀂃 Different path for DRAM vs LCD – implication on sustainability of cycle.
􀂃 We raise earnings for Samsung, Hynix and LGD on better product prices.
More robust demand recovery
Strong PC, CE growth deepens component shortage
The global PC shipment grew 27% y-y in 1Q10, according to Gartner, topping its
22% projection. While our official 2010 PC growth forecast is 15% (Patty Liu), and
17% for DRAM modelling, the actual may end up higher. The current recovery is
driven by consumers, and we believe when corporate PC replacement starts in
earnest, which should be from 3Q10 with the planned Windows 7 SP1 release, the
PC demand would step up, resulting in continued DRAM shortages. We now expect
DRAM price to remain flattish until 3Q10, expanding DRAM OP margins to 47% for
Samsung Elec and to 44% for Hynix. We also expect their NAND OP margin to
expand to 43% and 21% respectively, on the stronger-than-expected NAND pricing
trend. As opposed to our -15% q-q ASP forecast for 2Q10, the April contract price
actually rose 5% on strong demand from smartphone makers -- We now project a
milder -5%. Also, Apple (AAPL, CP: USD245.95, Not rated) has stated that it is
postponing iPad sales in the international market due to supply shortages.
Subsidized demand boost for TV
Government subsidy programs that were intended to fight recession and boost
consumer spending are boosting TV replacement demand above the historical norm.
After decades of no growth, the Japan TV market grew almost 70% y-y in 1Q10, led
by government subsidies (eco-point). Likewise, the expanded rural subsidy programs
in China has spurred flat-panel TV demand and flat-panel TV penetration reached
96% (of TV sales) in 1Q10. We believe the artificially boosted demand will help the
2010 market but won’t be sustainable once the subsidies end or are curtailed.
Different path for DRAM vs LCD
Excited by the artificially boosted demand, panel makers are rushing to add
capacity as fast as they can – harbinger of next downcycle, which may start from
4Q10. However, we expect the DRAM industry won’t have new fab in the next two
years except for Samsung’s Line-17 (due to start in 2H11). Tier-2/3 DRAM
makers are putting priority on upgrading obsolete tools rather than new capacity.
Hynix has said it wants to exit the current upcycle with deep cash rather than
scaled up capacity – good sign, in our view.
Raise earnings for Samsung, Hynix and LGD
Consumers are spending more on tech than we projected, and the professional
segment should follow soon. Reflecting the stronger-than-expected product
demand and pricing trend, we raise our 2010E EPS 11.2% for Samsung, 39.6%
for Hynix and 27.6% for LGD. Following the earnings revision, we also raise Hynix
TP to KRW40,000 and LG Display TP to KRW39,000.
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