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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月全球烈酒行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：32
【目录或简介】：
We would not wait for signs the ontrade
is picking up and premiumisation
has returned in the US to buy the sector
Although we are Overweight on all
three, we find Rémy Cointreau (upgrade
to Overweight from Neutral (V), TP
EUR46 from EUR38) a more
controversial call than Pernod Ricard
(drop V flag, TP EUR74 from EUR68)
and Diageo (TP 1,320p from 1,175p)
We remain Neutral on LVMH (drop V
flag, TP EUR95 from EUR88), which has
benefited strongly from the luxury
sector’s re-rating
Two-stage growth engine: The de-stocking phenomenon took
the market by surprise last year but we do not anticipate any restocking.
Retailers are enjoying living with lean inventories and
we think the mere non-recurrence of de-stocking could surprise
positively in the next two quarters. Beyond that, mix and price
could start to kick in as brands begin to reinvest and the
consumer feels more confident.
Look outside Europe: Luxury companies under our coverage
came across in recent calls and meetings as bullish on Asia ex-
Japan and optimistic about the US. We see spirits companies as
less talkative on the US but we view the category as being late
cyclical by only a few months. In other words, we believe there
is potential to surprise there while European trends may
continue to prove softer.
Upside risks: Some threats remain for the sector with taxes an
obvious risk but we believe improving sentiment will outweigh
them starting with impressive calendar Q1 sales to be published
in the next few weeks. We upgrade Rémy Cointreau to OW
from N(V) with a new target price of EUR46 (from EUR38) on
the back of its exposure to the premium segment as well as Asia
and the US. Both Pernod Ricard and Diageo deserve a re-rating
in our view: Pernod (OW, drop V, target price EUR74 from
EUR68) offers exposure to the return of premiumisation and to
Asia and Eastern Europe, while Diageo (OW, target price
1,320p from 1,175p) is a play on the US, Latam and Africa. We
remain Neutral on LVMH (drop V, target price EUR95 from
EUR88), which has already benefited from the re-rating of the
luxury industry.
Premiumisation 2.0: the
audacity of hope 4
Companies 9
Rémy Cointreau 10
Diageo 14
Pernod Ricard 18
LVMH 22
Disclosure appendix 27
Disclaimer 31
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