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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月北美造纸行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：97
【目录或简介】：
Prices are rising in almost every grade. It’s mostly a supply-side story. The sharp
demand decline in late ’08 and early ’09 caused the industry to announce
substantial capacity closures. In recent months, supply has been further
restricted, because many mills have been subject to downtime or slowbacks due
to fiber issues resulting from unusually wet weather. Some grades are also being
impacted by the Chilean earthquake.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Periodical
Top picks
Crown Holdings (CCK.N),USD27.55 Buy
Temple-Inland (TIN.N),USD22.45 Buy
International Paper (IP.N),USD27.47 Buy
Pactiv (PTV.N),USD25.85 Buy
Global Markets Research Company
Hints of cyclical demand improvement
We are finally starting to see signs of genuine demand improvement. The gains to
date in most grades are only modest, however. In most grades, the magnitude of
y/y volume gains is exaggerated by the extremely easy comps of early ’09. Still,
even modest gains in domestic demand are leading to tighter markets, because of
supply discipline and favorable trade flows. Moreover, with broad economic
indicators such as GDP and the ISM’s manufacturing index showing strength, we
expect further demand gains in the months ahead.
Fiber costs appear to be moderating
The big cost issue in recent months has been fiber costs. OCC costs in particular
saw a massive surge through most of 1Q. Virgin fiber costs were also increased
(and supply reduced), as unusually wet weather in many parts of the country
limited access to trees. In recent weeks, it appears that fiber costs are starting to
moderate. Most other cost elements remain at moderate levels.
Paper prices are on the rise
In almost every paper grade, tight markets and elevated fiber costs are pushing
prices higher. Perhaps the most notable hike initiative is in containerboard, where
producers are out with a $60/ton increase for April 1. This follows a $50/ton
increase on January 1. While a second hike in such a short order appears
surprising, we think that producers have a good chance to push it through.
Improving demand, lean inventories, limited capacity, and improving trade flows
are all creating producer leverage.
Valuation & Risks
Paper companies are trading around 1.8x book value and 6.2x on an EV/EBITDA
basis on our ’10 EBITDA estimates. Packaging companies are trading about 13.1x
our ’10 EPS estimate, and a 6.7x EV/EBITDA multiple using our ’10 EBITDA
estimates. We value paper companies using different metrics, including sum-ofthe-
parts, and historical EV/EBITDA and P/E ratios. Our valuation of packaging
companies is primarily based on historical EV/EBITDA patterns. EV/EBTIDA takes
into account varying amounts of debt at each company. The primary risks involve
momentum in the economy, the health of demand within key grades like
containerboard and white paper, and additional energy, chemical, and freight cost
inflation. For packaging companies volume appears to be the key risk.
Companies under our coverage are also exposed to currency risk.
Table of Contents
Outlook and review........................................................................... 4
Cyclical Recovery ......................................................................................................................4
Domestic demand trends .........................................................................................................4
Production & Inventories ..........................................................................................................6
Input costs ...............................................................................................................................6
Currency...................................................................................................................................7
Price Hike Initiatives..................................................................................................................8
Black liquor credits....................................................................................................................8
The Stocks?..............................................................................................................................8
Earnings Information...............................................................................................................11
Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Data............................................................................................12
Paper, Packaging & Forest Product Comparables ..................................................................13
Integrated, Flexible & Rigid Packaging Comparables..............................................................14
Company specific overview............................................................ 15
DB coverage universe.............................................................................................................15
AptarGroup .............................................................................................................................16
Ball Corp.................................................................................................................................18
Bemis.....................................................................................................................................20
Crown ....................................................................................................................................22
Domtar...................................................................................................................................24
Glatfelter ................................................................................................................................26
Greif .......................................................................................................................................28
International Paper ..................................................................................................................30
Louisiana Pacific......................................................................................................................32
MeadWestvaco......................................................................................................................34
Packaging Corp .......................................................................................................................38
Pactiv .....................................................................................................................................40
Plum Creek Timber .................................................................................................................42
Rock-Tenn ...............................................................................................................................44
Rayonier.................................................................................................................................46
Sealed Air...............................................................................................................................48
Silgan Holdings .......................................................................................................................50
Sino-Forest.............................................................................................................................52
Sonoco...................................................................................................................................54
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