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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月中国地产行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：40
【目录或简介】：
1Q sales down 13% Y/Y: We recorded +78% M/M rebound but 25%
Y/Y drop in volume sales in the eight cities we track in March. Sales in
1Q10 recorded 10% Y/Y drop when compared to the same period last
year. All cities recorded a decline in sales volumes in 1Q10 except
Chongqing and Tianjin. This may be because sales in second-tier cities are
less affected by policy measures as they are not as overheated as in firsttier
cities and properties in second-tier cities are more affordable.
• Mortgage tightens further – 50% and 1.1x PBoC rate: The State
Council announced further tightening measures to slow the runaway
property prices by raising down payments to 50% from 40% and raising
the mortgage rate to 1.1x of the PBoC base lending rate (5.94%) instead
of the normal 0.85x for second homes. We believe the new measures
should be effective in suppressing some of the speculating/investment
demand. We think buyers will take a “wait-and-see” approach and see
where prices will correct, which should, in turn, lead to slow sales in the
next few months. A large price correction of 20%-30% is very unlikely as
most developers are sitting on strong cash position and limited inventory.
• Expect divergence of stocks and physical market to continue: We think
the sector could fall back to the previous trough levels in Feb 2010,
implying 5% potential downside from here. With developers’ strong
contracted sales, improved financial position and good earnings outlook,
we don’t expect a big sell-off as the sector is trading at an undemanding
valuation of 12.3x FY10E P/E with 31% CAGR. We recommend buying
on dips, with top picks CR Land (1109.HK) and some mid-caps like Agile
Property (3383.HK), R&F (2777.HK), and Shimao Property (0813.HK).
Table of contents
China market review.................................................................3
Share price performance ..............................................................................................3
Mortgage tightens further on second homes ................................................................6
Investment Ideas ........................................................................................................12
Major corporate actions.........................................................18
Land acquisitions .......................................................................................................18
National macro and industry movements ............................20
Shanghai and Hangzhou........................................................23
Hangzhou...................................................................................................................25
Beijing/Tianjin.........................................................................26
Beijing........................................................................................................................27
Tianjin........................................................................................................................28
Guangzhou..............................................................................30
Shenzhen ................................................................................33
Chongqing and Chengdu.......................................................35
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