2010年4月加拿大消费行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月加拿大消费行业研究报告
        【作者】：TD newcrest
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：84
        【目录或简介】：
Consumer Staples stocks did not impress in the first quarter of 2010, as the bulls
took charge, pushing up the higher beta-cyclicals. While the economic outlook has
no doubt improved over the last year and markets have rebounded off their cyclical
lows of March 2009, there are a number of economic landmines that could threaten
the pace of recovery. At a minimum, we can expect shifts in interest rate
expectations to add to market volatility over the next year or so, as global
governments begin the hard and delicate task of returning to monetary normalcy.
In Canada, the economic recovery faces a number of headwinds (in addition to the
rebalancing of monetary and fiscal policy) including waning U.S. demand; high
unemployment, a strong Canadian dollar, and high household debt, which threaten
to choke off any material rebound in consumer demand.
The rotation back into Consumer Staples stocks in Canada, which we thought
had started back in Q4, took a breather in Q1. However, our underlying theme
that Consumer Staples stocks should enjoy another moment in the sun this year
remains unchanged. As the market continues to punch higher, we believe that our
coverage universe is well placed to benefit from the rising odds of a market
correction, which should tip the scales in favour of our defensive-oriented
Consumer names. In fact, we point back to the analysis we did in our Q4/09
Quarterly Staple, which showed that Consumer Staples have on average returned
almost 18% in the six months following a recession and outperformed the
S&P/TSX by almost 8% over the same period. That said, it could very well be
that our call was a quarter or two early, given that economic stimulus measures
are remaining in place longer than the average recession, and not all stocks are
expected to rise equally given the company-specific challenges faced by several
companies (particularly drugstores).

Table of Contents
Investment Conclusions ...................................................................... 4
A Quick Look Back at Q1/10 Stock Performance ............................ 6
Current Quarter Earnings Outlook Summary................................. 8
Quarterly Industry Highlights ........................................................... 9
Retail
Drug Stores .................................................................................................... 9
Food Stores .................................................................................................. 18
Quick Service Restaurants (QSRs) .............................................................. 23
Convenience Stores...................................................................................... 30
Consumer Products
Dairy ............................................................................................................ 36
Meats, Meals & Bakery................................................................................ 42
Sugar ............................................................................................................ 46
Comparative Valuations versus Earnings Growth......................... 48
Individual Quarterly Previews/Analysis ......................................... 50
Shoppers Drug Mart..................................................................................... 51
Jean Coutu.................................................................................................... 53
Metro............................................................................................................ 55
Loblaw ......................................................................................................... 57
North West ................................................................................................... 59
Tim Hortons ................................................................................................. 61
Couche-Tard................................................................................................. 63
Saputo .......................................................................................................... 65
Maple Leaf ................................................................................................... 67
Rogers Sugar................................................................................................ 69
Justification of Target Prices............................................................ 71
Key Risks to Target Prices................................................................ 72
Appendix I. Q1/10 Insider Trading and Share Buybacks ............. 74
Appendix II. TD Quantitative Analysis – Consumer Staples
Sector .................................................................................................. 75
Appendix III. TD Economics Insight – State of the
Canadian Consumer ......................................................................... 77
Appendix A. Important Disclosures................................................. 81

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