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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月日本机械行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：92
【目录或简介】：
Sector stance: Bullish; Fanuc is our top Overweight recommendation
We are bullish on the machinery sector for three reasons: (1) the market
environment is entering a cyclical recovery phase, (2) many companies in the
sector enjoy high market shares both in Japan and worldwide, and (3) we expect
the automation of production processes in emerging markets to fuel demand for
machinery. In the near term, we expect demand for Fanuc’s profitable CNC
devices to recover, buoyed by a pickup in machine tool orders. In the medium
term, we think Fanuc will be a primary beneficiary of the greater diffusion of
NC machine tools in emerging markets, potentially the largest source of
demand for machine tools.
Robots and motion controls: We expect NC ratio in emerging countries to rise
We are bullish on this subsector because we think demand for CNC devices will
continue growing over the medium term. We estimate the NC ratio for machine
tools is still between 20% and 30% in China and think an increase in this ratio
over the longer term will sustain demand for CNC devices.
Machine tools: Can profits be had in emerging markets?
We are neutral on this subsector. We think the key to realizing profit growth in
emerging countries over the medium term is capturing a share of the midrange
market. The challenge for Japanese machine tool makers, which excel in the
areas of precision processing and product quality, is to enhance their cost
competitiveness to compete on pricing with local manufacturers. Mori Seki,
which formed a capital tie-up with Gildemeister, and Okuma, which is
expanding into the large machine tool segment, have taken different approaches,
and we will be interested to see how they fare.
Control systems and equipment: Focus is on developing overseas markets
We are bullish on this subsector near term but neutral over the medium term.
Our near-term focus is on the revised environmental protection law that went
into full effect nationwide from April this year, which we think could stimulate
renewal demand for Yamatake’s air-conditioning control systems. However,
both Yamatake and Keyence (which handles sensor equipment) derive a high
proportion of their profits from Japan. If these companies are to achieve
medium-term growth over and above Japan’s GDP growth, we think they need
to expand overseas profit sources.
Table of Contents
Initiating Coverage of Eight Companies: Summary Points
and Investment Ratings ...........................................................3
Investment Ratings ..................................................................4
Impact of Asian Economies Increasing..................................8
Sector Stance: Bullish ...........................................................12
Competitive Edge in Emerging Markets ...............................13
Earnings Overview.................................................................14
Factory Automation/Control Industry...................................27
Individual Companies ............................................................50
Okuma (6103)..........................................................................51
Amada (6113) ..........................................................................56
Mori Seiki (6141) .....................................................................61
Nabtesco (6268)......................................................................66
Yaskawa Electric (6506) .........................................................71
Yamatake (6845) .....................................................................76
Keyence (6861) .......................................................................81
Fanuc (6954) ...........................................................................85
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