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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月欧洲银行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：41
【目录或简介】：
Not yet fully out of the woods
The Greek debt crisis has served as a reminder that tail risk is still out there for the
banks as economies recover. In this report, we show the development of NPLs
and bad debt charges for over 35 banks across the region during 2009, and our
outlook. NPLs have charted considerably different courses by country depending
on the local environment, with ongoing rises in Russia, UAE, Saudi Arabia and
Hungary, stabilizing NPLs in CE3, South Africa, Turkey and Qatar, and Israel
standing out as the only country where NPLs declined in 2009.
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Industry Update
Top picks
PKO Bank Polski (PKOB.WA),PLN43.60 Buy
Sberbank (SBER.RTS),USD3.00 Buy
Garanti Bank (GARAN.IS),TRY7.35 Buy
NPLs/Loans %
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Hungary
(OTP)
Russia CE3
(ex-OTP)
UAE Turkey South
Africa
Saudi Qatar Israel
2009 2010e
Bad debt charges/Loans %
2009 2010e 2011e
Russia 6.2% 3.7% 2.2%
UAE 1.7% 2.8% 1.9%
Hungary (OTP) 3.5% 2.4% 1.2%
Turkey 2.5% 1.7% 1.3%
South Africa 1.6% 1.2% 1.0%
CE3 (ex- OTP) 1.2% 1.1% 0.9%
Qatar 0.7% 0.8% 0.8%
Saudi Arabia 0.9% 0.8% 0.8%
Israel 0.8% 0.7% 0.6%
Global Markets Research Company
Both ends of the spectrum
NPLs are highest at the Russian banks and at OTP, reaching 9-10% of gross loans
which is well above the EMEA average of 5%. Recent results highlighted that
NPLs continued to rise in Russia, and though the rate of increase declined
compared to prior quarters there was a notable difference between Sberbank
(NPLs +6% QoQ) and VTB (+16% QoQ). We expect NPLs in Russia to peak in
mid-2010. We are least confident regarding credit quality at the UAE banks, where
we believe NPLs/loans will peak at around 8% from 3.3% currently, and see
impairment charges rising steeply mainly due to real estate and retail exposures.
At the other end of the spectrum are the Qatari and Israeli banks that have low
levels of NPLs (1-2% of gross loans) and where we have a positive outlook for
asset quality. This reflects State involvement in Qatar and the benefits of low risk
profiles and disintermediation during the last cycle in Israel.
Stabilizing NPLs as environment improves, with exceptions
The Turkish, South African and CE3 banks (ex-OTP) have NPLs in the 5-6% range,
or close to the average for the region. Banks in these countries saw a sharp
increase in NPLs during H1 2009, but then experienced stabilization as the
economic environment improved in H2. There were even improvements at
FirstRand (-5% HoH), Pekao (-2%) and Bank Asya (-5%) that ended 2009 with
lower NPLs than at 1H09. By contrast NPL deterioration at Garanti (+27% HoH),
Standard (+17%) and BZW (+17%) stood out from country peers. We are looking
for falling NPLs in South Africa as the bad debt cycle has peaked, and broadly
stable NPLs in CE3 and Turkey where the tail risk of restructured loans becoming
non-performing is balanced against the improved environment.
Provisioning charges to decline, but remain above mid-cycle
We expect bad debt provisioning in every country to decline in 2010 (except UAE),
but remain above mid-cycle levels. The steepest drop in charges is not surprisingly
expected in countries that saw the largest increases as a result of the financial
crisis – i.e. at the Russian banks. We see falling provisions as having a bottom line
impact in Turkey, South Africa and CE3 as well, though having only moderate
effect in Israel, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
Credit quality remains a key risk
Key risks for EMEA banks include the quality of credit portfolios, high levels of
NPLs, limited access to wholesale financing to fund growth, increased regulatory
pressure, and the potential for margin declines as banking services mature.
Table of Contents
EMEA credit quality overview.......................................................... 3
Four clusters emerge................................................................................................................3
NPL outlook by country.............................................................................................................4
Provisioning to decline, but remain above mid-cycle levels ......................................................5
Russian banks .................................................................................... 7
NPLs trend higher, but at slower pace......................................................................................7
CE3 banks......................................................................................... 10
OTP stands out .......................................................................................................................10
UAE banks ........................................................................................ 14
Asset impairment likely...........................................................................................................14
Turkish banks................................................................................... 18
NPLs stabilized.......................................................................................................................18
South African banks ........................................................................ 23
NPLs stabilizing......................................................................................................................23
Saudi banks...................................................................................... 26
Increase in NPLs concentrated ...............................................................................................26
Qatari banks..................................................................................... 29
Slight deterioration in credit quality.........................................................................................29
Israeli banks ..................................................................................... 33
NPLs low and on the decline ..................................................................................................33
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