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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月印度汽车行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：97
【目录或简介】：
Young, but no extraordinary powers: On a low base, IPPs are likely to
see a quantum jump in installed capacity, and hence, operating cash flows,
between FY11E-13E. This makes for a strong medium-to-long-term
investment case. However, no producer would have supernormal powers to
overcome: a) coal price and sourcing uncertainties; b) potential execution
delays from practical land acquisition, mining and environment issues; and
c) unpredictability of merchant prices. Our lower-than-consensus FY11/12
earnings estimates (for 4/6 stocks we cover) factor in these risks: we would
look at potential earnings disappointments to buy into names we like.
• Each IPP has a mix of sugar, spice and something nice: 1) Lanco
Infratech – initiating with OW, Mar-11 PT of Rs70: strong underconstruction
and development pipeline to result in accelerated earnings
growth, relatively well-hedged fuel strategy, and reasonable valuation. 2)
Adani Power – upgrade to OW, with new Mar-11 PT of Rs143: An underconstruction
pipeline that inspires most confidence on execution, coupled
with the most robust cash flows and equity returns in our space; we would
look at potential operational irritants (e.g. Indonesian coal sourcing) to buy.
• 3) Downgrade TPWR to Neutral with a new Mar-11 PT of Rs1465: our
optimism on coal prices, new project starts already reflected in current stock
price, while recent newsflow on stand off with Reliance Infra on Mumbai
distribution makes us less positive. 4) Initiate on JSW Energy with
Neutral, and a Mar-11 Rs127 PT: Great execution track record and the
cheapest on FY11E/12E earnings, but coal-related uncertainty and lack of
sufficiently ‘cooked’ projects may constrain long-term growth and valuation.
5) NTPC – keep Neutral with new Mar-11 PT of Rs225. Strong project
pipeline and potential execution pick-up fairly valued but merchant sale, if
any, could be an upside.
• 6) RPWR continues to be UW, as we are unable to justify current valuation
even after a leap of faith on unfunded UMPPs.
Table of Contents
Investment summary, stock views and catalysts ..................3
Valuation and actionable stock call summary..............................................................4
IPP comparisons on key parameters of execution, nature of
off-take agreements and fuel security....................................6
Q1: Which is the largest, and which is seeing the sharpest ramp-up in execution? .....6
Q2: Which is adding cleaner and more efficient capacities? Which is sourcing
equipment from where? ...............................................................................................7
Q3. Which is opportunistic and which is conservative? ..............................................7
Q4: How do tariffs compare across IPPs?....................................................................8
Q5: Which is using what fuel and how does cost of generation compare? ..................9
Q6: Which is ‘smart’ on fuel sourcing, eg: has pass-through for fuel that is being
procured at market rates? ...........................................................................................10
Q7. Which players are exposed to specific fuel risk of Indonesian sourcing?...........12
Q8: Which has the healthiest balance sheet, least need for raising equity going
forward and will throw up a lot of cash?....................................................................13
IPP comparisons on profitability and efficiency of capital
usage.......................................................................................15
Valuation methodology..........................................................17
Projects included and excluded in SOTP / PT: our one “√” OR two @s criterion...17
What WACC we use..................................................................................................18
IPP valuation comparisons....................................................19
Stress-testing IPP valuations, earnings for key variables ..20
1. Decline in merchant power tariffs..........................................................................20
2. Increase in coal prices............................................................................................21
3. Impact of a reduced PLF........................................................................................23
4. Assigning value to pipeline projects ......................................................................23
Quantum spike in execution, between now and Mar-12 .....25
What does this do to traded power prices, demand and
supply? A macro view............................................................26
Our view on demand, supply, and deficit ..................................................................26
Merchant power –constituents, recent trends and forecast.........................................27
Competitively-bid long-term tariffs: trends ...............................................................29
Fuel security: coal situation is grim, but gas capacity
expansions are understated..................................................30
Gas availability ..........................................................................................................3
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