2010年4月台湾宏观经济研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月台湾宏观经济研究报告
        【作者】：BNP百富勤
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：40
        【目录或简介】：
Contents
Strait Talk ..................................................................................................................3-9
Chart Book ............................................................................................................10-35
Economic Basics 10
GDP Developments 11-14
Leading Indicators 15
Business and Consumer Surveys 16
Industrial Trends 17-19
Trade Trends 20-24
Current and Financial Account 25-26
Population and Labour Market 27-29
Inflation Trends 30-32
Money and Credit 33
Public Finances 34
Key Economic and Financial Forecasts 35

Strait Talk
􀂄 Taiwan was hit harder than many countries
in the initial stages of the global financial crisis.
GDP fell by 10% peak-to-trough.
􀂄 However, Taiwan’s recovery has been
equally phenomenal.
􀂄 Strong global demand, particularly from the
US and China, for ‘tech’ products has been
hugely beneficial to Taiwan. Tech-related
production growth peaked at over 250% q/q
annualised in Q2 2009.
􀂄 As in the rest of Asia, a strong monetary and
fiscal response from the authorities has
supported domestic demand.
􀂄 The economy as a whole has therefore
bounced back vigorously. Annual GDP growth
in 2010 is likely be close to 9%
􀂄 Manufacturing output is up 55% from its
trough while GDP has risen by over 11%. As a
result, output levels look to be back on trend –
the economy has effectively normalised.
􀂄 While the unemployment rate remains above
normal levels, spare capacity in the labour
market appears limited.
􀂄 Although the pace of growth will moderate
given headwinds in the West and Chinese policy
tightening, it should, on average, remain robust
and the labour market should improve steadily.
􀂄 A policy rate of 1.25% looks inappropriate
against such a backdrop. While core inflation
remains contained, it has picked up.
􀂄 Macro fundamentals now support
progressive normalisation of monetary policy.
We expect CBC to start pushing up rates at its
end-Q2 meeting with an end-2010 target of
2.00% and end-2011 target of 2.50%.
Hit hard…
Taiwan suffered one of the deepest recessions
among developed economies – a term we use
intentionally. Per capita GDP in Taiwan is the match
of Japan and is also on a par with levels of some of
the richer countries in Europe. Peak-to-trough
Taiwanese GDP fell by almost 10%. This was a
deeper fall than was seen in Japan, South Korea and
Germany (three other manufacturing-orientated
economies with current account surpluses and
renowned for experiencing a large collapse in activity
at the time of the crisis). Part of this greater decline
reflects the fact that the Taiwanese economy was
already contracting before the crisis intensified.
Nonetheless, this does not detract from the scale of
the decline. Quite simply, it was huge and beyond
anything one would have imagined would occur prior
to the crisis.

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